OddsChecker Staff Roundtable: Week 6 NFL Upset Picks and Predictions
Welp, it was bound to happen.
Last week was the first one with a negative ROI for our staff's upset picks, but despite that, you'd still be sitting on $1,739 of profit if you bet $100 on each of our picks this season.
That's an ROI north of 50%, for what it's worth.
A third of our failed picks this season have come when members of our staff had the poor judgment to predict a Jets win. So, with the Jets on a bye the season, we should have no trouble getting back on track.
In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite upset picks each week of the season.
Now, the word “upset” could mean many different things to many different people. But for the purpose of this piece, we’re focusing entirely on moneyline plays.
In other words, we’re picking surprise winners and losers. Let’s get to it!
Week 6 NFL Upset Picks and Predictions
Seattle Seahawks Over Pittsburgh Steelers (+198)
I love primetime football because you can expect the unexpected. Geno Smith is expected to get the start against the Steelers and he's got plenty of doubters coming into this game. We watched him make some quality throws last week, and with a full week of preparation, Smith should fit right in with plenty of playmakers, including Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. While the Seahawks' defense has looked terrible, I'm not so sure the Pittsburgh offense can really flex their muscles either. Take the Seahawks as a big underdog!
-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)
Detroit Lions Over Cincinnati Bengals (+160)
The Lions are the only winless team left in the NFC, and this is their first 0-5 start since 2015. However, this is the week they get their first win. Detroit is a record-setting field goal away from beating the Ravens and a miraculous last-second drive away from beating the Vikings. If the Lions lose this game, it would be their first 0-6 start since 2008 when they finished 0-16. Detroit will do everything in its power to avoid those bad vibes and will beat a Cincinnati team coming off a devastating loss of its own.
-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)
Arizona Cardinals Over Cleveland Browns (+150)
Look, I get that the Cardinals are on the road -- but to give the only undefeated team in the league a 40% implied probability of winning this game? How can I pass up? It's not like Arizona doesn't have quality wins. They've beaten the Rams and 49ers in their last two games. And quite frankly, there's no reason to think that the Cards won't be the better team on Sunday. Both of these squads are top-10 in Offensive DVOA, but Cleveland's success has come from a run game that will be without its star running back, Nick Chubb. Defensively, Arizona has the upper hand as well. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the fourth-best defense, while Cleveland is 12th. I'll gladly take Arizona here.
-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)
Last week, I suffered my first L with my upset pick. I went for the Browns to beat the Chargers but they ended up not being able to pull off the win. This week I'm going against those Browns as they take on the only undefeated team left in the NFL. Although I was tempted to pick one of the 0-5 teams, the Jaguars or Lions, this week I couldn't find the advantage. So I'm going with the 5-0 team that is priced as the underdog. I am a bit bullish on the Browns if they can get healthy, but the fact of the matter is they are banged up all over and the Cardinals aren't. Baker and Kyler are close buddies from being back-to-back Heisman trophy winners at Oklahoma. Star running back Nick Chubb will miss this one and the Browns secondary is also injured. This one should surely be entertaining but I'm going with the only undefeated team to keep things rolling in Week 6.
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)
Carolina Panthers Over Minnesota Vikings (+125)
I went to bed having to lay points with the Pathers, I wake up to see them getting multiple points. I was happy to bet Carolina laying a point with or without McCaffery dressing. I'm thrilled to get this kind of take back. The Panthers are second in the league in defensive EPA this season.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
I think oddsmakers may be overreacting to last week’s performance against the Eagles here. The Panthers are still a decent team. In fact, they were the better team against Philadelphia. The issue was the offense stalled late and Jalen Hurts turned things around. Still, I think Carolina is a better team than the Vikings, and I’m getting them as a home dog. Give me the Panthers and Sam Darnold to fix things this week against a very average Vikings team.
-- Brian Good (@BeGood1219)
Los Angeles Chargers Over Baltimore Ravens (+120)
We're in for an exciting game when the Chargers head to Baltimore, but I think Brandon Staley's defense could provide just enough of a challenge for a Ravens offense thriving on explosive pass plays to allow Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense to steal a road win. Mike Williams is questionable, which could be a big blow if he's unable to suit up, but the Chargers sound optimistic.
-- Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch)
After a couple of down weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has been on fire the last three weeks, scoring 105 points -- an average of 35 per game. Justin Herbert just led an unbelievable comeback at home and now looks to steal an upset on the road. The Baltimore defense has struggled against the pass this year, allowing the fourth-most passing yards in football. Baltimore was lucky to escape their game against the Colts with a win just last week, they beat up on an injured Broncos team, and it took a miracle kick to beat Detroit. Honestly, Los Angeles is just the better team.
-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)