NFL Week 6 Player Props: The Best Player Prop Picks For This Sunday
The bye weeks are upon us in Week 6, as are the injuries. Let’s dig into what’s most actionable from a wild first five weeks to find my favorite Week 6 props.
NFL Week 6 Player Props
Justin Fields, over 16.5 rush yards (-115 @ Borgata)
Fields has rushed for just 25 yards total across three starts, but it has been widely publicized how rocky those starts have been. Over the past two weeks, both wins, the Bears have gone extremely run heavy. That’s not likely to be possible in a tougher matchup with the Packers this week, though the Packers don’t generate a ton of pass rush, so there will hopefully be more time for Fields to find space than what Fields faced in a Week 2 loss to the Browns.
The Packers have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks despite not facing any real rushing quarterbacks. They’ve faced both the Saints and 49ers, but Taysom Hill and Trey Lance combined for just two yards on three rushes in those games. Jared Goff’s 46 yards against them is actually the high any opposing quarterback has reached, and that was double Goff’s previous career high for rushing yards in a game.
Fields ran for 92 yards this preseason over three games in which he obviously didn’t play every snap. He also ran for 31 in Week 2, in a little more than a half of football in relief of Andy Dalton. These past three weeks have brought his rushing prop way down, and even if he seems far off from high-level rushing output for a quarterback, there’s plenty of room for him to go over.
Henry Ruggs, over 44.5 receiving yards (-114 @ FanDuel)
Henry Ruggs, over 2.5 receptions (-140 @ Caesars)
We took the Ruggs receiving yards over last week, and it went over in what was his least-targeted game of the season, and then his prop dipped this week with a tough matchup with the Broncos on deck.
All the points from last week stand. Ruggs has taken a step forward this year in his ability to earn targets, he’s had multiple near misses on deep shots and has still gone over this yardage number in each of his five games, he’s caught at least three balls in every game since Week 1 — tough matchup or not, Ruggs is going to have higher props later this season once he really pops in a game or two. Everything in his underlying usage and data suggests that’s coming.
Perhaps my only concern is how the Raiders will respond without Jon Gruden on the sidelines, and if they have a really poor game as a team overall, you could see where no one would hit their numbers. But even in that scenario, you have outs as the Raiders would be throwing from behind late in the game, and Derek Carr has played well in those spots so far this year, so these numbers are just too soft for me.
Darrel Williams, under 50.5 rush yards (-110 @ FanDuel)
It’s become a little too commonplace to assume a RB injury immediately means a backup will step into a big role. In Week 5, Williams wound up playing 43% of the snaps, after he’d been at 34% and 36% the previous two weeks. Jerick McKinnon meanwhile made much larger gains, finishing Week 5 at a 31% snap share after a previous season high of just 12%. So the first thing is it’s not clear Williams will be the clear lead.
The second is that the Chiefs might just throw a ton. They’ve tended to want to anyway, and in some respects Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t fit what they want to do. This might be a game where they lead against Washington, which could mean some late carries for Williams, but those are typically against heavier box counts and it’s still hard to see him total something like 15 carries.
And finally, Williams just isn’t a very efficient back. He’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry this year, and 3.8 for his career, and going over this number might require more attempts than it would for a more explosive back. There are multiple outs here, from McKinnon playing more than expected to the Chiefs eschewing the run altogether to Williams having an underwhelming rushing day even with volume.
NFL Week 6 Player Props Picks
Justin Fields, over 16.5 rush yards @ -115
Henry Ruggs, over 44.5 receiving yards @ -114
Henry Ruggs, over 2.5 receptions @ -140
Darrel Williams, under 50.5 rush yards @ -110