Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Prediction: Monday Night Football Picks
Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Monday, October 18, 2021
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Key Stat: Buffalo leads the NFL in success rate against the run, and is second in success rate against the pass. They have Football-Outsiders’ top-ranked defense by DVOA by a wide margin.
Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Prediction
One of the biggest early storylines of the 2021 season has been the play of the Buffalo Bills’ defense, particularly after they did well to contain Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense in a big 38-20 win last week. Buffalo has otherwise had a soft slate of opposing offenses, so it could be said the jury is still out somewhat, but that Sunday Night Football performance was pretty massive.
Now they head to Tennessee for another primetime road game against an AFC contender. The Titans have been riding Derrick Henry more than ever, as Henry averages a ridiculous 31.2 touches per game so far this season after leading the league at “just” 24.8 last season. But Tennessee will have Julio Jones back this week, and after getting A.J. Brown back last week, will have their dynamic WR duo on the field together for the first time since Week 3.
That couldn’t come at a better time, because the Bills pose a tough test, with star cornerback Tre’Davious White leading a strong secondary. Interestingly, White hasn’t graded particularly well at PFF to start this season, but a few of the Bills’ other cornerbacks have, so it’s probably unfair to think of this as a one-man band in the secondary. The bottom line is that Buffalo has been brutal on opposing offenses so far this year, both against the run and against the pass, and while Henry, Brown, and Jones all pose unique threats, Tennessee’s offense hasn’t looked the same this year.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense has picked things up after a slow Week 1, and they were striking quick against the Chiefs’ lackluster secondary last week. Josh Allen wound up averaging over 20 yards per completion in that game — his first nine completions went for more than 260 yards, into the second half. Allen has notably not needed to rely on Stefon Diggs or even Cole Beasley much so far this season, as Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox have both stepped forward to become big parts of the passing game. It’s easy to read that as a sign of optimism, knowing what Diggs and to a lesser extent Beasley did last season.
This should be a fun contest, and I expect Tennessee to play tough, but the bottom line is Buffalo looks like the best team in football, they’re well coached and maximize analytical edges in-game, and Tennessee is just getting healthy, and not the same caliber of team even at full strength. I like the Bills to cover.
Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Picks
Buffalo Bills -5.5