NFL Week 6 Picks: SNF and MNF Parlay Picks

Derrik Klassen is back with a SNF and MNF parlay for Week 6 of the NFL season. Check out who and what he likes from these two games.
Derrik Klassen
Sun, October 17, 4:26 AM EDT

NFL Week 6 Picks: SNF and MNF Parlay Picks

For Week 6 of the NFL season, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks will be without Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future and Geno Smith will get the start on the road.

On Monday, you have the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. We have a parlay for you that includes plays from both of these games.

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) over Tennessee Titans at -115

There is a case for the Buffalo Bills as the best all-around team in the NFL right now. Perhaps their run game could be better and some more consistency week-to-week from the passing game would be nice, but the offense is comfortably in the top-half of the league despite their inconsistencies. Pair that with a league-best defense and it is not tough to make the argument that the league goes through the Bills right now, as funny as that sounds.

Part of their strong start has to do with the schedule. There is no denying that. The Bills absolutely bludgeoned their three-week streak of “weak” opponents, though, and topped it off with a beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs. They have won their last four games by at least 12 points, including their 18-point win over the Chiefs.

The beacon of hope for the Titans is that getting Julio Jones and AJ Brown back into the lineup will boost the offense. It should to some degree, but with both still fresh off injury and facing the toughest defense in the league, this is probably not the week they are going to pop off for a big game.

From top to bottom, I have a hard time seeing how the Titans match up in this one. They are outmatched on both sides of the ball. Tennessee is a competitive team, but this is as tough a matchup as it gets.

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Betting Odds

Steelers RB Najee Harris, Anytime TD Scorer at -150

Najee Harris has completely dominated Pittsburgh’s red zone opportunities this year. Some of that is Harris’ ability as a runner, some of it is how comfortable he is passing catches, and some of it is Ben Roethlisberger being far more willing to check it down than force passes into tight red zone windows. Whatever the leading force may be, the reality is the Steelers love Harris in the red zone.

In total, the Steelers have eight red zone rushing attempts and 19 targets, good for 27 total opportunities. Harris has taken seven of those carries and a whopping nine targets. No other player on the team has more than three targets. Harris, in total, is managing 59% of the Steelers’ red zone opportunities, which is just a monster share for any player.

Harris has not yet scored through the air, but that volume of opportunity suggests it is on the horizon. He has also punched in two of his seven red zone carries for touchdowns. On a rate basis, that is pretty solid. The real issue to this point in the year has just been that the Steelers do not get to the red zone enough, but against a struggling Seahawks defense, that should be less of an issue than in previous weeks.

Harris is a talented player who should get at least a handful of red zone opportunities. That would be a favorable proposition in any week, but especially against a weak Seattle defense.

Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Anytime TD Scorer at +100

On the not-so-serious level of analysis, Stefon Diggs is due for a score. Diggs, the best receiver on his team, has just one touchdown this season — a score he managed to punch in against the Dolphins in Week 2. Diggs has not scored since then despite earning plenty of targets and otherwise being productive.

From Week 3 and on, Diggs has earned 26 targets. He has caught 15 of those targets for 265 yards, good for 16.5 yards per reception. All of those figures lead the team over that span, yet he has not managed to score while both Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox have scored four times apiece. Those two players are good pass-catchers in their own right, but it’s not reasonable to expect them to continue scoring at this clip while Diggs goes 0-for.

On a more serious level of analysis, the Titans' secondary has been a disaster this season. Second-year man Kristian Fulton has not quite been what the team was hoping for, while the rest of the unit has been inconsistent at best. Without any legit cornerback to comfortably handle Diggs 1-on-1, he should get opportunities to both generate explosive plays down the field as well as find work in the red zone.

Parlay Picks

Bills -5.5

Najee Harris Anytime TD

Stefon Diggs Anytime TD

Derrik Klassen
QBKlass
You've seen his breakdowns and football analysis on Twitter and elsewhere. Now, Derrik Klassen brings his unmatched knowledge of the game to OddsChecker to give us his NFL picks each and every week.
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