Top Monday Night Football Props to Bet: Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Derrik Klassen is back with his Monday Night Football prop picks for the Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills matchup.
Derrik Klassen
Sun, October 17, 4:49 AM EDT

Top Monday Night Football Props to Bet: Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Bills QB Josh Allen, Anytime TD Scorer at +110

Josh Allen is one of seven quarterbacks with at least two rushing quarterbacks through five weeks. Sam Darnold somehow holds the crown with five, but Allen has a pair of rushing touchdowns for himself this season, tied with Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, and Daniel Jones.

Allen is not getting lucky on a few red zone scrambles, either. He is getting almost as much work on the ground as the team’s running backs. Some of that is via scrambles, sure, but the team has also recommitted to using Allen as a runner when the field gets condensed.

Through five games, Allen has 12 red zone carries. Zach Moss leads the team with 14, just two more than Allen. The rest of the team has 11 red zone carries combined. Allen is not necessarily dominating the team’s red zone shares the way Cam Newton may have during his prime, but it’s clear Allen’s legs are a core part of what the team wants to do when they get into the red zone.

The Titans have also been a bit prone to giving up rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. Not only did Kyler Murray get one on them in Week 1, but Trevor Lawrence punched one in last week as well. Moreover, the Titans rank 24th in red zone rushing defense by DVOA, which suggests Allen should get a couple of decent looks to punch one in.

Tennessee Titans, Under 2.5 Total Touchdowns at +100

The Titans offense has only failed to hit this mark once this season. Back in Week 1, Vance Joseph’s Arizona Cardinals defense held the Titans offense to just 13 points, which was a feat made possible in part because of how disjointed the Titans’ game plan looked for that game. They have ironed things out since then, but their schedule over the past month has also been wildly favorable.

Since playing the Cardinals Week 1, the Titans have faced the Seahawks, Colts, Jets, and Jaguars. All four defenses currently sit outside the top-20 in defensive DVOA, including the Jaguars sitting at 31st ahead of only the Chiefs. It’s been an easy slate of defense for the Titans offense to manage, even with their flurry of injuries. This week does not offer them the same reprieve.

The Bills defense is as stingy as any in the NFL. Buffalo’s defense ranks first in defense DVOA, points allowed per drive, and turnovers per drive, most of which they lead by wide margins. There will probably be a game or two where they falter this season, as even the best defenses can do on occasion, but there is little reason to believe this Titans game is going to be one of those instances.

Titans RB Derrick Henry, Over 12.5 Receiving Yards at -115

For starters, Derrick Henry is a better pass-catcher than he looks. He is not going to be splitting out wide like Nyheim Hines or anything, but Henry is plenty comfortable catching the football in space, especially this year. Henry laid an egg against the Jaguars last week as far as receptions go, but he had previously earned at least two receptions and 19 yards in every other game this season, including a 6-55-0 game against Seattle in Week 2.

This prop also works from a matchup perspective. Generally, the Bills do not do a ton of blitzing. Pro Football Reference has them with the fifth-lowest blitz rate in the league at just 17%. In theory, if a team is blitzing less often, it means they are putting more bodies down the field in coverage and not forcing the running back to stay in to protect. That could lead to some checkdown opportunities for Henry, in addition to some of the screen game the Titans have dabbled in this year.

MNF Prop Picks

Bills QB Josh Allen, Anytime TD Scorer at +110

Tennessee Titans, Under 2.5 Total Touchdowns at +100

Titans RB Derrick Henry, Over 12.5 Receiving Yards at -115

Bills vs Titans Week 6 Betting Odds

Derrik Klassen
QBKlass
You've seen his breakdowns and football analysis on Twitter and elsewhere. Now, Derrik Klassen brings his unmatched knowledge of the game to OddsChecker to give us his NFL picks each and every week.
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