Monday Night Football Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

Monday Night Football features two first-place AFC teams, the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. Here are our staff's top picks for the game.
Elisha Twerski
Mon, October 18, 9:23 AM EDT

Monday Night Football Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

Fifteen down, one to go.

The only game that remains for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills.

Week 6 has seen favorites cover in eight of the 13 games and win straight up in 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, the over has gone just 4-7-2.

Tonight's game is a matchup of two first-place AFC teams, the 4-1 Buffalo Bills and the 3-2 Tennessee Titans. Both squads could start to build comfortable leads in their respective divisions with a win tonight.

In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite overall plays each week of the season.

For this piece, our staff will be covering whatever bets they feel strongest about for the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills matchup -- no limitations. Let’s get to it!

Click here for complete Titans vs. Bills betting odds

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions

Buffalo Bills -6.0 (-110)

The Titans are outmatched on both sides of the ball. Simple as that. Heading into Week 6, the Titans ranked 27th in DVOA. Though the Bills have not been firing on all cylinders every week this season, the Titans are a bad enough defense that Josh Allen should be able to generate all the explosives he needs to run away with this one. Couple that with the Bills' league-best defense against a Titans defense that has had its ups and downs, and it just feels like a tough one for Tennessee to keep close, even at home.

-- Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass)

Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread so far and has an insane margin of victory of 21.6. Granted, I don’t think they’re blowing out Tennessee tonight I do look at this as a tough matchup for the Titans. They thrive at running the football and Buffalo’s biggest strength on defense is stopping the run. If the game is on Ryan Tannehill’s shoulders give me Josh Allen and the Bills every time.

-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)

Tennessee +6.0 (-103)

I'd love to have passed on giving a pick for this game but it's not my style. I'm taking the Titans and the points at home in what appears to be an obvious letdown spot and an inflated line after the Bills took down arch-nemesis in Kansas City last week. (Disclaimer: I'd probably wait on this one because I suspect everyone will be betting Buffalo today and the spread will continue to rise throughout the day.)

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Tennessee +6.5 (-113)

This line once opened at Bills -3.5 and has done nothing but move in their favor since. I get the public love on Buffalo, especially after an impressive performance on Sunday Night Football last week in Kansas City. But this is a tough spot for the Bills, playing on the road in primetime in two consecutive weeks. Buffalo would love nothing more than to pay Tennessee back for a 42-16 trouncing on national television last year. However, the Titans have a balanced offense that can keep Buffalo's offense off the field. At +6.5, the value is completely gone from choosing Buffalo, and one should grab the near seven points with the underdogs.

-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Over 53.0 (-110)

Let's not forget what the Titans did to the Bills offensively last year, defeating the Bills, 42-16 in an absolute rout. The Titans will return Julio Jones and AJ Brown to the field this week and that's big moving forward for this offense. The Bills have been tremendous on defense but some of the numbers they have been putting up are a bit unsustainable. We know Buffalo will get their points but I like the Titans to stick around as well and push this game over the total.

-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)

Stefon Diggs Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Stefon Diggs has only gone over 70 receiving yards once this season. With a talent like his, that shouldn’t be a reason to shy away from this receiving yards number. The Titans’ defense has given up 80-plus yards to five wideouts this season. This includes guys like Freddie Swain and Keelan Cole. It’s the perfect matchup for Diggs to crush the over. I expect he’ll have over 100 receiving yards tonight.

-- Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF)

Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (-120)

The Titans have allowed the most receiving yards and third-most touchdowns (8) to wide receivers through the first five weeks of the season. They've also allowed the sixth-highest yards per target (9.7). Stefon Diggs is fourth in the NFL in air yards. Diggs has topped this number in three out of five games. The Titans have allowed an astounding 13 wide receivers to have at least one reception for 25 yards, including at least two in every game so far. I also like the odds on Diggs to find the endzone tonight priced at +115. Best of luck if you tail!

-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)

Josh Allen 275+ Passing Yards and Stefon Diggs 80+ Receiving Yards (+130) - DraftKings

To date, Josh Allen is averaging 274 passing yards per game, and he'll be going up against a Titans defense that's allowing an average of 279.2. According to Football Outsiders, Tennessee ranks eighth-worst in Pass Defense DVOA through five weeks. Allen has also topped 275 passing yards in nine of 11 road games since the start of 2020. Meanwhile, the Titans have ceded an average of 224.4 receiving yards per game to wideouts this season, which is the most in the league. They've allowed 80 or more to a receiver five times already this season. Oh, and starting corner Kristian Fulton will be out. That doesn't help.

-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)

Elisha Twerski
@ElishaTwerski
The Senior Editor at OddsChecker, Elisha is an experienced fantasy and betting analyst. According to BettingPros, he was was one of the most accurate betting experts in 2019, ranking second in moneyline picks and 13th against the spread. Originally from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, his best skill is his ability to spell "Antetokounmpo" without looking. You can follow Elisha on Twitter at @ElishaTwerski.
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