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The Chicago Bears travel south to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers in Week 7. NFL expert Mike Spector is here with a three-leg same-game parlay for this matchup.
ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears: Same-Game Parlay Picks

The Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet for the second consecutive season, as Tom Brady and the Bucs look to avenge last year's 20-19 loss at Soldier Field. Can Justin Fields earn the biggest win of his young career, or will the veteran Brady lead Tampa Bay to their 14th win in the last 15 games?

Find out what plays we like in our three-leg same-game parlay that pays odds of +298.

Click Here For Buccaneers vs. Bears Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (Alternate Spread)

Week 7 is filled with many double-digit favorites, and Tampa Bay's -12.5 point spread is only the third-biggest spread of the week. So we choose to move the initial point spread just enough that we do not have to worry about the favorites laying more than a touchdown.

The reason for moving the point spread in this direction instead of taking Chicago getting over 17 points is based on how well Tampa Bay has played at home this year. The Buccaneers are 3-0 at Raymond James Stadium and have won those three contests by an average of 17.7 points per game. Tampa Bay has a big showdown with the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome looming next week, so Chicago may not have Tampa Bay's full attention. However, they still should win by a touchdown or more, given Chicago's ineptitude on offense all season.

UNDER 49.5 (Alternate Total Points)

This year, the Buccaneers have averaged 41.3 points per game in their three home contests, so taking an under in one of their home games seems blasphemous. However, they have faced the Cowboys and Dolphins, who rank 23rd or lower in total defense. And while their third opponent they have beaten at home, the Atlanta Falcons, rank 13th in total defense, their numbers are slightly skewed by the fact they have faced two poor offenses in the Jets and Giants.

The cliche against Tom Brady his whole career is that you can affect him and profoundly limit his potential if you get pressure with your front four. Entering last week's game against the Packers, the Bears ranked third with a 35% pressure rate. Nevertheless, Chicago's defense did a good job containing Aaron Rodgers, holding him to his lowest yardage output of any game in their five-game winning streak. In last year's meeting, Chicago held Brady to a 60.9% completion percentage, and the Buccaneers had just 339 yards of total offense.

Bettors need not worry about Chicago's chances of scoring points in this game, as they have topped 20 points just once since Justin Fields was named starting quarterback. Fields is completing just 53.5% of his passes on the season and finished with a QBR higher than 40.6 just once in five starts. He has thrown for more than 200 yards just once as well. With Tampa Bay holding opponents to a league-best 54.8 yards per game on the ground, the Bears do not stand a chance if Fields does not have a better game with his arm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total UNDER 30.5 points

While we have referred back to last year's meeting between these two teams for context, we should note that Antonio Brown had not yet joined Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers were without Chris Godwin in the game. However, one cannot deny how impressive Chicago's defense has been since their Week 1 loss to the Rams.

The Bears have allowed just 18.0 PPG and have taken some red-hot quarterbacks entirely out of their rhythm. We mentioned Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of their winning streak against the Bears. In addition, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr had his lowest QBR against the Bears, and the game was also his second-lowest completion percentage and yardage totals of the season. It was also the only game that Carr did not throw at least two touchdowns.

The seventh-ranked Bears defense is undoubtedly due to allow more than the 330.8 yards per game that they average. But suppose Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski misses yet another game. In that case, it makes a big difference in what Tampa Bay does offensively, without the elite threat of a receiving option at that position over the middle of the field.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Same-Game Parlay Picks

3-Leg Same game Parlay (+298): Risk $100 to win $298

  • Buccaneers -6.5 (Alternate Spread)
  • UNDER 49.5 (Alternate Total Points)
  • Buccaneers Team Total UNDER 30.5 points

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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