TNF Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Week 6 was our best week to date with our anytime touchdown picks. We managed over 19 units of profit from just our touchdown picks. Last Thursday night game we managed four units of profit and I am looking to keep this train on the tracks. We have gained plenty of momentum and don't want to slow down.
The only issue is this Thursday night football game between the Browns and Broncos could very well be ugly. The total is set at just 41 points, the lowest of the entire week. So oddsmakers aren't predicting many touchdowns in this one. The odds for the anytime touchdown market really show that oddsmakers don’t expect much scoring! Only one player has odds lower than +200. So we will tread lightly here.
The Browns have already announced that starting quarterback Baker Mayfield will miss this game due to injury and veteran Case Keenum will be under center. The Browns are also going to be without their superstar running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt because of injuries. Last season Keenum appeared in a game just once with the Browns in a blowout loss against the Steelers in October. In that game, he spread the ball to all of his receivers.
Keenum's last start was Dec 29, 2019, with Washington. In that one he targeted his wide receivers 15, tight ends 13, running backs 7 times. His last two touchdown passes have been to wide receivers and 10 of 11 of his last touchdown throws have been to wide receivers.
Both of these teams boast top 10 rushing defenses. The fact Denver has been one of the three best teams defending the tight end position it’s difficult to be confident in backing either of the Browns guys Hooper or Njoku. The Browns have also been excellent defending against tight ends allowing the least receptions to the position so far. Oddly enough out of 16 receptions 3 have been touchdowns though! Granted two of them came back in Week 1 against the best in the league at the position, Travis Kelce.
The injury report is hefty for both sides but I've done all the research so you don't have to find the best value for our anytime touchdown scorers Thursday night. Just because we did great last week doesn't mean to put it all on the line here. Bankroll management is key, especially when we get a tough matchup to decipher like this one.
Let's get to the best anytime touchdown picks for Thursday night! Best of luck if you tail!
Browns vs. Broncos Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Courtland Sutton (+225)
Speaking of top dogs, Sutton has established himself as just that for the Broncos. With Jerry Jeudy still sidelined Sutton finally had his breakout game of the year. He caught 8 of 14 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. He nearly had two scores but Teddy Bridgewater missed him on a wide-open throw. Sutton received a whopping 28 percent of Bridgewater's targets last week. The Browns have allowed the 7th most receiving yards and are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed with 9 on the season to wide receivers., 6 of those 9 have come the last two weeks. Sutton leads Broncos wideouts with 7 red-zone targets 4 of them in the end zone and he was the only one who received a target last week in the group. He has scored twice so far but his opportunities suggest that should be 4 times. As the number one weapon for the Broncos on the outside, these odds are too long!
Javonte Williams (+230)
Although the rookie has been splitting touches with Melvin Gordon I prefer him over MGIII to score. Not only are his odds longer than Gordon’s but he also received more touches last week even though he was out-snapped by his backfield running mate. We were on Williams over the weekend but he was one of the few who didn't cash for us. The snap split is nearly even through six weeks 54-45 percent in favor of Gordon. It’s a coin toss between the two but I’ll side with the guy that’s been more explosive so far and has longer odds. Williams has three carries of 20 or more yards on the season. He has three receptions in four straight weeks now and is averaging over 6 yards per carry the last three weeks. Williams also has three carries inside the 5-yard line, the most for Denver.
Donavan Peoples-Jones (+320)
Peoples-Jones had a career day last week with 4 receptions on 5 targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns. If Jarvis and OBJ both sit he becomes the top dog for Cleveland. The Broncos have been susceptible defending wide receivers on deep throws this season. They are right behind the Browns allowing the 8th most yards to wide receivers. The last three weeks they’ve allowed a long touchdown of at least 48 yards. Henry Ruggs last week 48 yards, Diontae Johnson 50 yards, Marquise Brown 49 yards. Even Sterling Shepherd for 37 yards. Over the last two weeks, DPJ has had a long reception for 57 and 42 yards. As the big-play threat, I’ll take Peoples-Jones. Case Keenum's last two touchdown passes have been to wide receivers and 10 of 11 of his last touchdown throws have been to wide receivers. OBJ has yet to score in 2021 and has a grade-three sprain of the AC joint in his shoulder. I’m banking on the fact he doesn’t play and Wide Receiver Jarvis Landry is activated from IR but Peoples-Jones by the healthy guy in the mix and probably has some rapport with Keenum running with the second unit mostly I like these odds.