NFL Player Props Week 7: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
WOOO! What a ride Week 6 was! If you tailed you would've enjoyed a ridiculous return on our anytime touchdown picks. We're on to Week 7 though and I'd be lying if I told you I was excited when I looked at the board this week. The good news is that on Thursday night we cashed one of our three anytime touchdown picks and the third was voided for many, as Peoples-Jones was injured in pregame warmups and didn't make it onto the field.
In Week 6, we cashed on FIVE picks that were +300 or longer. With what is being called "byemageddon" in Week 7 it's difficult to find that type of value across the games on Sunday.
Week 7 provides us with multiple heavy favorites and with heavy favorites comes shorter odds for anytime touchdowns. So I've had to do a little more digging than usual and I'm going to have a little bit of a different approach. Week 6 was dominated by the tight ends but this week not so much. I will warn you, there are a few names here that have had scary starts to 2021 but with limited options available this week these are my top picks.
With Week 7 of the NFL here I'm looking for another strong week of anytime touchdown picks and trying to build on our profit. Best of luck if you tail!
Mike Davis (+170)
Mike Davis has been plenty involved in the Falcons offense. Although overshadowed by Cordaralle Patterson so far in 2021, Davis will similarly exploit the matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 7. Davis has played 66 percent of the Falcons snaps and has managed over a 50 percent rushing timeshare and gotten five of the Falcon's seven goal-to-go rushing attempts so far. The Dolphins have allowed the 7th most rushing yards and are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs. Last week I picked on Miami and made James Robinson my banker of the week to score and that cashed. While I'm not as certain, I love the odds we're getting for Davis. The Dolphins have allowed every opponent starting running back to score so far with the exception of the Patriots back in Week 1. Davis is close to a lock.
Chris Godwin (+135)
Godwin has been under the radar as well to start 2021. He is tied for the league lead in red-zone targets with Cooper Kupp at 13. Antonio Brown has been ruled out with an ankle injury setting Godwin up for an even larger share of targets. Mike Evans will likely be shadowed by breakout corner, Jaylon Johnson. Not saying Evans can't beat anyone in coverage but the point is more throws will be funneled in Godwin's direction. The Bears have allowed the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers. This might be the week where Godwin goes for 120 and two touchdowns.
Robby Anderson (+260)
My good friend Matt O'Leary made a joke on Friday asking if anyone was even going to score in this game. Well, Matt, the answer is yes and it will be Robby Anderson. His teammate Terrace Marshall is out meaning even more targets are available for Robby. I know it's been an abysmal season so far for Anderson but the Giants are just what the doctor ordered. Robby has received a whopping 11, 7, and 11 targets over the last three weeks. He is third in the NFL in unrealized air yards which are air yards minus actual receiving yards. The Giants defense ranks in the bottom 10 in all categories defending wide receivers. As a Giants fan, I can tell you the secondary is beatable and in Robby and Darnold's return to Metlife, they will connect for a score this Sunday.
Mecole Hardman (+240)
Hardman isn't a name I'm excited about writing and it's not because of the talent but it's because of how many weapons the Chiefs have on offense. The Titans have struggled against opposing slot receivers, if you remember this past Monday night we picked Cole Beasley to score, and well, he did. Injuries are also an issue for the Titans as Kristian Fulton and Caleb Farley are out, and Chris Jackson has moved outside, leaving rookie Elijah Molden to handle the slot. Actually, many of the opposing WR2s and WR3s have had the big games against this defense. This matters with Hardman, because while he gets snaps out of the slot, that's typically Tyreek Hill's position, and the Titans simply don't have the depth in the secondary to contain both. Here are some of the WR2 and WR3's who have stood out against the Titans: Christian Kirk (5 catches, 70 yards, 2 TDs Week 1), Cole Beasley (7 catches, 88 yards. 1 TD, Week 6), Freddie Swain (5 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD, Week 2), Jamison Crowder (7 catches, 61 yards, 1 TD, Week 4). The Titans have allowed the most receiving yards and touchdowns to wide receivers. Hardman has 60-plus yards in each of his past two games and at least one red-zone target in four straight. This should be the highest-scoring game of the week with a total set at 57.5 and Hardman has a great chance of contributing.
Dallas Goedert (+275)
So far this season, Mike Gesicki (10 catches 86 yards, Week 3), Jared Cook (6 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD, Week 4) and Noah Fant (9 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD, Week 6) have had big days against the Raiders. Goedert's usage should see a significant increase following the trade of Zach Ertz. In the four weeks in 2020 that Ertz was injured Goedert was a beast. He had 17 catches, 200 yards, and 2 TDs, on 23 targets. The Raiders defense has allowed the second-most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends, and fifth most yards in 2021. The Raiders have also allowed a league-high 50% of red zone passes to result in a touchdown and the Eagles rank 10th in the NFL in targeting their tight ends. Philadelphia tight ends have 11 red-zone targets this season tied for the second-most in the NFL and Ertz got 55% of those. Now he's gone so Hurts and Goedert best buds the rest of 2021 #analysis.
Ricky Seals-Jones (+400)
Last week we cashed big on RSJ and to see his odds even longer this week is crazy! Seals-Jones ran a route on 94.9% of dropbacks last week against Kansas City, which was the highest rate by any tight end so far this season. Green Bay has allowed a touchdown on all 15 red zone trips against it this season. The Packers are the only team in the NFL that has not gotten a single stop in the red zone. They have really been beaten by wide receivers but RSJ is running so many routes that doesn't matter. If Green Bay plays with a lead and Washington has to elevate its number of passing attempts, Seals-Jones should find himself in another spot where opportunity will be aplenty. The Packers have been just about as average as it gets defending tight ends but Seals-Jones merits consideration with his target share and these odds!
Cole Kmet (+500)
Kmet has been disappointing to start his NFL career but he's starting to build somewhat of a connection with Justin Fields. Or so I'm hoping. He's had 4,3,4, and 5 targets since Fields took over. The Bears offense has been very bad when forced to throw which is what the Bucs do to opponents. They force a passing funnel better than any team in the NFL. With that should come opportunities if the Bears can get near the red zone. They should be down early in this one and be throwing the majority of the second half. Tampa has allowed the third-most receptions and is tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. I think the pass rush forces Fields to get the ball out quick and Kmet may be the beneficiary.
Anthony Firkser (+450)
Just like I mentioned before this Chiefs vs. Titans game should be a shootout. Kansas City has allowed the most yards to tight ends so far in the NFL with 531. The next closest is the Chargers with 476. In other words, the Chiefs get gauged by tight ends. With the exception of last week, Firkser has received at least 4 targets in every game. In a game oddsmakers predict to be high scoring, I'll opt with the tight end receiving the most looks for the Titans.
Davante Adams to Score 2 TDs (+370)
So remember I said we're going with a slightly different approach? Well, here it is. With these lopsided spreads finding value is tough sledding especially in a week with so many teams on byes. Davante Adams is a beast. Davante has had a modest start to the season by his standards in the touchdown department but I wouldn't be surprised if he goes out and scores three times against the Washington Football Team. WFT ranks no better than third in Wide Receiver targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and end-zone targets so far. He's only scored twice on the season but that's about to change. I went with Adams for my top pick of the week you can read the rest of our staff's top picks for Week 7 here. Last season Adams scored two or more touchdowns in five weeks. I'm fine taking a stab at him to do it here in Week 7 at these odds because he will surely score once. His odds to score once are (-200) at multiple books. So the value for two here is pretty good. These odds are available at FanDuel.
Darrell Henderson to Score 2 TDs (+340)
This is another spot where I think there's a rare opportunity based on value to make this bet. Henderson's teammate Sony Michel is banged up so Henderson will cede even less work to the backup. He scored twice last week against the Giants. Everyone is excited to see what Stafford and the Rams will do against this Lions defense while I'm all in on Henderson to be the story. We continue to pick on the Lions much like the Dolphins to this point. The Lions boast the worst defense in the NFL defending running backs. They've allowed a league-high 12 touchdowns through the first six weeks. On top of that, the Rams run block win rate is the sixth-best in the NFL meanwhile the Lions run stop win rate is 28th. The Rams offensive line blocking has been phenomenal. Henderson has amassed 72.7% of the Rams RB touches in his five games this season. Add that to the seven carries inside the five-yard line, the fourth-most in the league, and throw in a matchup with a Detroit defense that has allowed a league-high 93% completion rate on passes to running backs. Henderson provides a rare opportunity for a multiple touchdown day. These odds are available at FanDuel.
Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Mike Davis (+170)
- Chris Godwin (+135)
- Robby Anderson (+260)
- Mecole Hardman (+240)
- Dallas Goedert (+275)
- Ricky Seals-Jones (+400)
- Cole Kmet (+500)
- Anthony Firkser (+450)
- Davante Adams to Score 2 TDs (+370)
- Darrell Henderson to Score 2 TDs (+340)