Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Can Justin Fields Pull Off The Upset?
This is a matchup between two of the harder teams to judge in the NFL. I think the 49ers are good, but honestly, they look like a different team every time they take the field. Is Jimmy Garoppolo starting? Is Trey Lance going to be out there? For now, it seems like it’s Jimmy G’s team. But, that could change any day.
As for the Bears, Justin Fields has shown promise, but it’s mostly been a rocky road. Though, it’s hard to tell how much of that is on Fields and how much is on head coach Matt Nagy.
Who wins this week? Or, more importantly, who covers? Let’s take a look at my Bears vs. 49ers prediction.
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
If you’re the Chicago Bears, you have to just flush the memory of last week’s loss from your mind. You basically come to grips with the fact that you had a bad game and move on, because if you dwell on that performance it’ll turn into another terrible showing this week against another good defense.
Just three weeks ago, it looked like the Bears had turned it around. They beat a good Raiders team after defeating a bad Lions team. But, a loss to the Packers was followed by this past week’s demolition at the hands of the Buccaneers, and now a team that looked like they had some promise is looking dead in the water.
But, if you’re looking for some good news, it’s the fact that Chicago is decent against the spread this season (forget last week) with a 3-4 record. But, San Francisco is just about as bad as it gets when it comes to covering.
The 49ers are 1-5 ATS through six games. The only team with a worse mark is the Washington Football Team at 1-6.
So, while betting on a team with an inexperienced QB that is coming off a 35-point loss may seem like an awful proposition, there are some reasons to think the Bears can keep this at a field goal.
The main reason I’m considering the Bears is their upside. Sure, it’s been bad at times with Justin Fields under center. But, we’ve also seen flashes. You know what we haven’t seen from Jimmy G? Flashes of anything great.
This season, Jimmy Garoppolo has a QBR of 38.1, good for 28th in the NFL. He has just six TDs to 4 INTs. His average intended air yards rank sixth-worst in the NFL, at 7 per attempt. Not only is he inaccurate, but he doesn’t do anything to stretch the field.
What we need is a sloppy, ugly game that stays close throughout the afternoon. If it turns into a shootout, the Bears won’t be able to keep up. But if that strong front four of Chicago’s can get after Jimmy G, make him uncomfortable and force some turnovers, we’re in business.
I don’t love betting on the Bears here, but I cannot bring myself to bet on Jimmy Garppolo to win on the road at Soldier Field by more than four points.
Give me the Bears, plus the four. And, to be honest, I don't hate a little action on the moneyline. But, I will just be riding them with the points.
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick
Pick: Bears +4 @ -107