3 Ways To Win Big On Monday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants
Two-leg Parlay (+360 on DraftKings)
Chiefs RB Darrell Williams, Under 54.5 Rushing Yards
Darrell Williams, more than any other running back in the league, is just kind of “there.” Williams plays with a functional level of balance and speed, but there is nothing exciting about his game from an athletic standpoint. He is not the kind of player who will create very much on his own and is not a threat to rip off a single run that will hit the over instantly.
In 91 attempts over the past two seasons, Williams’ longest run was just 13 yards. Moreover, the only game in which Williams cleared the 54.5 yard mark over the last two seasons was a couple weeks ago against Washington. It took him 21 carries to do so (averaging 2.95 yards per carry), which is not a sustainable or expected workload for him, even considering the lack of depth in Kansas City’s running back room right now.
Granted, the Giants have a mediocre run defense, but Williams is nothing special himself and I suspect the Giants offense can score enough in this game to not lend to an ideal game script for Williams.
Chiefs WR Demarcus Robinson, At Least 20 Receiving Yards
Conversely, some of the Chiefs’ ancillary pass-catchers may be equipped to have a decent game. Per Football Outsiders, the Giants have been much worse this season when offenses targeted wide receivers outside of their top-two targets. The Giants defense ranks 16th and 13th in DVOA versus No.1 and No.2 receiving targets, respectively, but that plummets to 26th against all other wide receiver targets.
Robinson’s target rate has fluctuated between zero and six throughout each game this season, but his snap share has been consistent, especially as of late. Robinson has played at least 67% of snaps in all but one game this season, including his season-high 79% snap rate in last week’s blowout. That was partly due to a monstrosity of a game script, to be clear, but again, he has still been a steady snap-earner for them.
Robinson will be on the field plenty on Monday night. This part of the parlay hitting will be dependent on the Giants continuing to struggle handling tertiary wide receiver options.
Giants TE Evan Engram, Anytime TD Scorer at +330
Evan Engram is a perpetually frustrating player. All of the athleticism is there for him to be a good tight end, but his ability to box out defenders leaves something to be desired and his ability to simply catch the football comes and goes. That being said, Engram gets the luxury of facing arguably the worst linebacker group in the NFL this week.
The Chiefs’ linebackers are horrendous. While Nick Bolton gets a bit of a pass for being a rookie, he does not look like an NFL athlete in space and has struggled as a coverage piece thus far. His counterpart, second-year player Willie Gay, plays with his hair on fire and has great athletic ability, but has yet to be iron out the consistency in his game, particularly in coverage. All of Kansas City’s other linebackers — namely Anthony Hitchens and Ben Niemann — are not effective in coverage, either.
The Chiefs defense as a whole is allowing the third-most yards per game to tight ends right now, which is mostly a result of linebacker play. Kansas City is also 23rd in red zone pass defense DVOA, yet a surprising eighth in run defense — a formula that should lend to the Giants finding the end zone through the air. Engram has yet to find pay dirt this season, but this would be as good a game as any for him to change that.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, First TD Scorer at +1800
Patrick Mahomes’ legs have been a key part of the Chiefs’ offense this season. With questionable offensive tackle play remaining an issue, Mahomes has been forced to do his fair share of scrambling and he’s generally done well with it. That has even been true in the red zone.
To this point in the season, the Chiefs only have 20 red zone rushing attempts. Running back Darrell Williams leads the bunch with nine carries, but Mahomes is tied for second with five attempts. He is no Cam Newton down in the red zone, but he’s typically found one play a game where he gets out of the pocket for a scramble. Mahomes even punched in one of those red zone rushing attempts already back in Week 1.
It is also worth noting that the Giants’ pass rush has been good this season. They should be able to get Mahomes moving at least once in the red zone in this match, and hopefully for this bet’s sake that happens sooner rather than later.
Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants Picks
- 2-leg parlay +360
- Giants TE Evan Engram, Anytime TD Scorer at +330
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, First TD Scorer at +1800