NFL Expert Picks: Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Best Bet

Dolphins vs. Texans best bet and prediction for Sunday afternoon. NFL handicapper Matt McCuen breaks down the game and how he's betting it.
Matt McCuen
Tue, November 2, 11:10 AM EDT

NFL Expert Picks: Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Best Bet

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Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Preview

A pair of the worst teams in the NFL will battle on Sunday in the Sunshine State as the Miami Dolphins will play host to the Houston Texans. These teams have combined for a 2-14 record so far in 2021, and this will be a battle of who can get their second win of the season.

The Texans came into this year with low expectations after moving on from the all-pro defensive end and the heartbeat of the team in JJ Watt. Additionally, the Texans dealt with off-the-field issues to Deshaun Watson, and that's on top of the star quarterback already wanting out of Houston.

The Texans brought in veteran signal-caller Tyrod Taylor, who was impressive in a Week 1 win. Taylor subsequently hit the IR, and the Texans turned to rookie quarterback Davis Mills' services. That hasn't gone well, as Mills has struggled mightily this season.

The Dolphins, on the other side of things, came into this season with expectations to compete for the postseason, and they could not be more disappointing so far as they sit dead last in the AFC along with the Texans, playing to the tune of a 1-6 record this season. The Dolphins were 10-6 just a year ago, and they were projected to put up similar numbers this season behind a strong defense and behind the young southpaw quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa.

Tua has been a disappointment this season while also dealing with multiple injuries, which have forced veteran backup Jacoby Brissett into action.

The good news for one of these teams is that something has to give this week, and one of the squads will end this football game with two wins and climb out of the bottom of the AFC. The oddsmakers believe Miami will get this win as a fairly heavy favorite for a one-win team, coming into this game as a current 6.5-point home favorite.

Dolphins vs. Texans Prediction

Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Complete Odds

The pick I am looking at in this football game is not a side, as I believe it isn't easy to trust either of these units with the way both have played this season.  I did find a good angle here on the side as I am eyeing up the first half under in this game, which is currently sitting at 23.5 (-110).

The Dolphins and Texans both rank towards the bottom of the league in first-half points, with the Dolphins coming in 29th in the NFL, scoring just 7.5 points this season in the first half, while the Texans rank 25th in first-half scoring, averaging just 8.8 first-half points per game. I believe the pace of this game will also favor the under as neither of these teams is explosive enough to have big-time plays that would kill the first half under.

These teams average less than 5 yards per play, ranking 28th and 31st in that category, respectively. I believe that even drives that result in points will be methodical drives that milk clock -- that will favor our under bet.

The lack of explosive plays -- on top of the pace -- that I see in this game, will result in the under hitting.

Dolphins vs. Texans Best Bet

Pick: 1H Under 23.5 (-110)

Matt McCuen
@DeadPresPicks
Matt McCuen is a native of Delco, PA. He has been working in the sports gambling industry and creating content for the last few years. He is an expert in numerous different sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and collegiate sports. You can follow Matt on Twitter at @DeadPresPicks.
Nov 2021
Record
Wins
38
Losses
21
Push
1
ROI
70.40%
0Betslip

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