Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction: Broncos Look to Snap Cowboys' Undefeated ATS Record
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction: Bridgewater, Broncos Look to Snap Cowboys’ Undefeated ATS Record
The Denver Broncos made headlines earlier this week after trading eight-time Pro Bowl linebacker Von Miller to the Rams. Is this an early sign that the 4-4 Broncos are waving a white flag on the season? Can the Dallas Cowboys take advantage of a Broncos defense in their first game without their best player and roll to a seventh consecutive victory?
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ETWhere To Watch: FOX
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys Injury Report
Questionable: DT Mike Purcell, S Jamar Johnson, CB Bryce Callahan, LB Micah Kiser, LB Alexander Johnson, LB Andre Mintze, CB Mike Ford
Doubtful: OT Garett Bolles (ankle)
Questionable: QB Dak Prescott (calf), CB Trevon Diggs (ankle)
OUT: LB Jabril Cox
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
While many will question Denver’s reasoning for trading Von Miller at this point of the season, the team made what they thought was the smartest move at the time, as they aimed to maximize their return. In exchange for Miller, the Broncos received second and third-round 2022 draft picks, while the best they could have gotten for him in an offseason trade was a fifth-round pick. However, the team is taking on a heavy financial burden, still paying $9M of Miller’s remaining $9.7M owed.
Though it is unclear how Miller’s absence will affect the Broncos defense, there is no denying how productive a player he was his entire career. Miller leads all active players with 110.5 sacks and ranks fourth with 3.4 pressures per game over the last five seasons. With Miller, the Broncos came into this week with the second-ranked scoring defense allowing 17.1 points per game. However, seeing as Denver’s offense has topped 24 points just once since Week 2, fans in the Mile High City are likely not as optimistic about their chances going forward.
In Dallas’ case, optimism is sky high after last week’s road win over the Vikings, their sixth consecutive win of the season. Dallas proved their offense is much more than just Dak Prescott, as Cooper Rush threw for 325 yards. That is the second-most ever by a Cowboys player in their first career NFL start. In addition, the Cowboys defense turned in their best performance of the season last week against the Vikings. Dallas allowed a season-low 16 points and 278 total yards, which was also the second-fewest points scored and yards totaled by Minnesota. Now Dallas’ offense should receive a boost this week, as It is looking likely that Prescott will be back under center, with the team already announcing he will be a full participant in Thursday’s practice.
This year, the Cowboys have been a bettor’s dream, covering the spread in all seven games and cashing the over in five of seven. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 4-4 ATS, and the under has cashed in six of their first eight games. So, where does the betting value lie this week?
If you prefer to get into the habit of contrarian betting and being on the other side of the public, the Broncos should be your play this week. Given how public a team the Cowboys are and with their undefeated ATS record, this game sets up to have very lopsided betting splits. The point spread has already risen from -7 to -10 as a result of the Von Miller news. And while it may be difficult to pinpoint reasons why the Broncos will cover, maybe that is just how sportsbooks want it to appear.
Denver won their first two road games against the Jaguars and Jets and have since lost back-to-back games on the road to the Steelers and Browns. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Denver has allowed just 17.5 PPG in their four road contests but will be challenged by the Cowboys offense like they have not been challenged all year. However, we look for the Broncos defense to rise to the challenge and rally around the “next man up” mentality, as more unproven players will be given a chance after Miller’s departure.
Broncos head coach Vic Fangio will muck this game up as much as possible, milking the time of possession and keeping the Dallas offense off the field. There is a chance we see Prescott limited coming off his calf injury, and the Cowboys may not give Denver their full attention given how much turmoil their franchise was under this week.
While the Cowboys will be one of the most heavily bet teams this week, we are happy to back the Broncos at +10 and hope we can get an even better number before kickoff.
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys Pick
- PICK: Broncos +10 (-115)
Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest