Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs Same-Game Parlay: Trust The Offense
Before Aaron Rodgers contracted COVID, this looked like a marquee matchup between two heavy-weight quarterbacks. Now, it’s a little bit of a different story as Jordan Love is set to get the start in place of Rodgers this week.
Even still, it should be a good game as the Chiefs defense is poor enough to keep just about any team in a game, and their quarterback, Pat Mahomes has been a turnover machine this season.
For this matchup, I will be taking a look at a three-leg same-game parlay that focuses on the offense.
Leg 1: Packers over 19.5 points
Jordan Love has only attempted seven passes in the NFL since being taken 26th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. It’s hard to gauge what he will be at this level but when you consider the Chiefs’ defense, he should be just fine in this spot start. On average, Chiefs opponents are scoring 27.5 points per game and opponents have been held under 25 points just twice so far this season. The last time the Chiefs went back to back games keeping opponents under 20 points you have to go back to late October of 2020. It’s been a while and just because Aaron Rodgers isn’t playing doesn’t mean that the streak is coming to a close.
Leg 2: Chiefs over 19.5 points
Over the last two weeks, the Chiefs have combined for 23 points. This is insanely rare and over that span, Pat Mahomes has just one passing touchdown to two interceptions and a lost fumble. He’s not playing well right now, obviously, but even still the likelihood of them being held under 20 is fairly slim. Since the start of 2019, they’ve been held under 20 points just three times including the playoffs. The Packers defense is ninth in the NFL in points allowed, so this one might be a riskier play than some would anticipate but I still have no issue including it in the parlay.
Leg 3: Packers +7.5
I despise betting the Chiefs, and I won’t do it anymore. I know the Packers are without Rodgers but frankly, Kansas City has shown me no reason to believe defensively that they will be able to contain an NFL offense to the point of winning by 8+ points. Kansas City has the worst turnover differential in the league at -11 while Green Bay is second in the league at +8. Green Bay is a live dog in this game, getting 7.5 points is almost too good to be true.
Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick
3-leg parlay +200 (Bet $100 to win $200)
Packers over 19.5 points
Chiefs over 19.5 points
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