San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Same-Game Parlay Picks
The 1972 Miami Dolphins can rest easy as the previously unbeaten Arizona Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season last week. Now the 7-1 Cardinals are in a tie with the Rams atop the NFC West standings, and they are one of four NFC teams with one loss. Thus, Arizona can ill afford a mini two-game losing streak with so much competition in their division and conference. This week's matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is a rematch of a 17-10 Arizona win at home in Week 5.
How will the results of that matchup, and what has transpired since, affect our thinking this week? Find out with our two-leg same-game parlay that pays odds of +188.
Same-Game Parlay 1st Leg: San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
There is no shame in losing to the Green Bay Packers, but considering how short-handed they were last week, it should be considered a bad loss for Arizona. The Cardinals defense allowed 24 points to the Packers, who were missing their top three wide receivers, and gave up 151 yards on the ground. Most concerning, Arizona badly lost the time of possession battle, as they held the ball for 22:25 compared to Green Bay's 37:35.
In what was rookie quarterback Trey Lance's first start, the 49ers valiantly battled Arizona on the road in Week 5. That was a tough spot for the 49ers to be in, as they had to limit a lot of their playbook and call more plays that made use of Lance's running ability. However, with Jimmy Garoppolo back and healthy, head coach Kyle Shanahan should be more comfortable designing an offensive scheme that better uses his playmakers.
One such playmaker is Deebo Samuel, who had 67 yards after the catch over expected in their win over the Bears last week. Per Next Gen Stats, Samuel leads the NFL with 182 yards after the catch over expected through Sunday. The Cardinals held Samuel to just three catches and 58 yards in the first meeting, but he should have a much more successful day with Garoppolo throwing him passes instead of the inexperienced Lance.
The Cardinals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games in November, while the 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as home underdogs. Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS in their previous eight games against San Francisco, but we do not mind being on the contrarian side of this trend.
Same-Game Parlay 2nd Leg: UNDER 50.5 (Alternate Total Points)
The second leg of our parlay moves the actual over/under five whole points. However, seeing as these two teams combined for just 27 points in Week 5, we may not even need to move the number at all.
San Francisco does come into this game with positive momentum on offense, as they scored points on their last seven possessions (three touchdowns, four field goals) before a kneel-down on their last possession against the Bears. However, the 49ers had not scored more than 21 points in four of the five games before last week's outburst.
The biggest reason for liking the under in this game is the health of Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray sprained his left ankle on the last play of the game in last week's loss to the Packers. Though he has three extra days for it to heal, having last played on Thursday night, the team is already prepared to keep him out of practice all week if needed. A major part of what makes Murray so threatening is his running ability on designed run plays or his ability to escape pressure. If Murray's ankle is severely compromised, that takes away one of his biggest threats.
Then there is the added concern of Arizona placing wide receiver A.J. Green on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Green's 456 receiving yards are just 30 less than team-leader DeAndre Hopkins, and he leads the team with 15.7 yards per catch. So not only would Green's absence affect their passing game, but there is the risk of a mini COVID-19 outbreak among the team, forcing other players to sit out this week potentially.
The Cardinals came into last week's game against Green Bay allowing 16.3 PPG (2nd in NFL) and 201 YPG (4th). Therefore, it is not like one poor defensive performance means they forgot how to play on that side of the ball.
The under has cashed in Arizona's last seven games as a road favorite and is 4-1 in San Francisco's last five games as an underdog. Thus, we like for this matchup between division rivals to be another low-scoring game.
49ers vs. Cardinals Same-Game Parlay Picks
2-Leg Same-Game Parlay Odds (+188): Risk $100 to win $188
- 49ers Moneyline
- UNDER 50.5 (Alternate Total Points)
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