Thursday Night Football Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Mike White. That is all.
I should just end this article right there. Everything should just start and end with Mike White.
For a few short hours this past Sunday, the 26-year-old quarterback hit pause on the New York Jets fans many, many, many years of misery, pain, and despair. Making his first career start, White completed 82.2% of his passes for a whopping 405 yards and three tuddies.
It was the best performance by a Jets quarterback since Joe Namath donned that fur coat at Super Bowl XLVIII eight years ago.
This week, the whole world (rough estimate) will be watching as New York's Savior and the Jets travel to Indianapolis for a matchup with the Colts. Can he perform another miracle? That remains to be seen.
In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite overall plays each week of the season.
For this piece, our staff will be covering whatever bets they feel strongest about for the Colts vs. Jets matchup -- no limitations. Let’s get to it!
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Picks
Over 46 (+100)
Mike White and the Jets offense erupted for 34 points last week, which snapped a 27-game streak where New York scored fewer than 30 points. Now let’s see if they can do it on the road on a short week. Cincinnati’s defense was likely caught off guard with minimal tape with which to scout White. That won’t be the case for the Colts defense. In addition, look for Indianapolis to lean on Jonathan Taylor once they get a big lead, leading to lengthier drives and longer possessions.
-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)
Michael Carter Over 4.5 Receptions (+108)
This is a big number, but the conditions that led to Carter catching eight and nine balls over the past two weeks seem likely to stick here on the short week. With Mike White at quarterback, the Jets set a season-high in pass attempts last week, in part because of a huge shift to more underneath throws. The 3.5-yard passing aDOT last week was a season-low for the Jets, after they'd also set a season-low in Week 7 when White took over mid-game. Carter's role has also expanded since the bye; he's run routes on 59% and 63% of dropbacks the past two weeks after a high of 43% in the season's first five. So we have Carter in a route on a higher percentage of passing plays, more passing (especially as big underdogs here), and more underneath throws due to quarterback tendencies, all of which supports Carter, a great receiving back in college, suddenly looking like that as a pro.
-- Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch)
Michael Carter Over 91.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Over the last two weeks, Michael Carter has established himself as the Jets lead back. He's also been one of Mike White's favorite targets since coming in to replace the injured Zach Wilson against the Pats. Over the last two games, Carter has 172 and 104 combined rushing and receiving yards and I don't anticipate that going away this week. White's average depth of target last week was 4.2 yards. That tells you that he loves to check the ball down and with the ball in his hands, Carter is a dangerous player. He may clear this number on receiving yards alone this week.
-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)
Mike White Over 22.5 Completions (-130)
Mike White needed 37 completions and 45 attempts to knock off the Cincinnati Bengals last week in his first career NFL start. If the Jets want any chance to pull off another upset, they're going to have to stick with screen passes and mainly short passes to win this game. The Colts are one of the better teams when it comes to stopping the run, however, the Colts also miss plenty of tackles and haven't been nearly as effective in the secondary. I'm not saying the Jets will win but I am saying that White will complete plenty of passes tonight.
-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)
Nyheim Hines Over 1.5 Receptions (-160)
It's buy-low time on Hines, but first I needed to double-check he wasn't on the injury report because his lack of recent usage was alarming to me. The Colts are coming off a five-quarter football game vs a rival and now must play on a short week -- this is not an ideal spot for them. I suspect, with little time to prepare for this game, Frank Reich will return to giving a healthy, rested, and well-paid Hines his screen game usage we are more familiar with. This one cashes early, as Thursday Night Football on short rest brings a dumbed-down playbook and a return to the ole' reliable.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Jonathan Taylor Over 107.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in football. He needs to be involved in more than just 50% of the Colts' offensive snaps. That said, he has been very efficient and effective in the run and receiving game this season and it appears he's just heating up. Taylor has gone over 108 total yards in each of his last 5 games. This includes 3 games with over 100 rushing yards and 1 game with over 100 receiving yards. He is the key focus in the Colts offense and has his best matchup of the season. The New York Jets have given up over 108 total yards to 4 different running backs this season. Jonathan Taylor will be added to that list after tonight's game.
-- Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF)
Michael Pittman Anything TD (+120)
Maybe I'm just riding the high from Michael Pittman's two-score performance last week, but it's clear he is their best scoring weapon through the air right now. Pittman is not the best separator, but he has a natural way for creating space at the catch point and being able to find the ball with ease. That should be enough for him to get end zone chances versus a pretty bleak Jets secondary at some point.
-- Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass)
Jonathan Taylor to Score & Colts to Win (-140)
SET IT and FORGET IT. I'm already on Jonathan Taylor to score two touchdowns in tonight's game in my anytime touchdown picks which you can read here. He's scored in five straight weeks. The Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to opposing backs so far and that's even with a bye week. The Colts are in a must-win game in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. It's their first primetime game at home since 2017. Lucas Oil Stadium will be rocking and Jonathan Taylor will bludgeon the Jets all night long. These odds are at FanDuel! Best of luck if you tail!
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)
Jonathan Taylor 3+ Receptions and 25+ Receiving Yards (+195)
The odds on this parlay at DraftKings are just too juicy to pass up. To date, the Jets have ceded the most receiving yards per game and the third-most receptions to opposing backs. Through seven games, seven backs have topped 30 yards against them through the air and six of them managed three or more catches. Meanwhile, Taylor's topped 50 receiving yards in two of his last four outings, and he'd had three or more receptions in four of his last five.
-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)