Week 9 NFL Player Prop Picks: Three Best Bets of the Week
Great news, people: I figured it all out—the whole thing. I know exactly what we're doing with our NFL player props this week. Did it take time? Of course, all things that are worth doing take time. But in the end, this week turned out to be easy. We need an easy week, and if you think about it, we deserve one after what great people we've been recently. I think the betting Gods are rewarding us because all three of these bets feel like gifts. Just amazing finds by me.
Week 9 NFL Player Props
Mark Ingram Over 28.5 rushing yards (-115) - Draftkings
DraftKings is where I bet this, but you can get the same thing at BetMGM. Same number, same price, everything. FanDuel still doesn't have player props available for this game, but I bet they come around shortly. They always do.
This might be the gift of all gifts. Ingram came back to New Orleans and, in his first week, played 29% of the snaps, which isn't great, but it completely helps our cause this week. For starters, he got six carries, so he was involved when he was on the field. Second, the Saints played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Ingram wasn't supposed to do anything special.
Fast forward to this week, and we've got Trevor Siemian starting for the Saints against the Atlanta Falcons. You have to think the run game will be prioritized against the Falcons 19th best run defense (opponent yards per rush attempt). Especially with Siemian under center. Ingram should get 10+ carries and go way over 28.5 rushing yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 33.5 receiving yards (-115) - Draftkings
This is another bet I took at DraftKings, but you can get the exact same thing at BetMGM. Unfortunately, again, FanDuel hasn't come to market with player props for this game, so we'll have to wait on them. Still, I can't imagine a better number than this.
Patterson is actually a guy you can expect to do stuff. Early in the year, he was making the most of limited opportunities. The guy was only playing 30ish% of the snaps but hanging stats. It was incredible. But now he's on the field 60+% of the time so that we can expect a certain level of production.
I have no faith that the Falcons are going to be able to run the ball on the Saints. No team is better in terms of opponents yards per rush. But I'm sure Atlanta will want to get the ball in Patterson's hands so we could see more of him in the passing game. There isn't a reception number out yet, but I think we can just get to that later. He should get his yards, so that's a full-on go right now.
Nico Collins Over 31.5 receiving yards (-115) - Draftkings
Another NFL player prop, another exact same line from DraftKings and BetMGM. It's all deadly, really, but I stuck with DraftKings since I already had the app open. Sometimes you get lazy in this game we play. FanDuel does not have any numbers on this game yet, but we shouldn't be mad because they are doing the best they can. They'll be our soon enough.
At some point, the Texans would have to play this kid, and it looks like they are doing it. He's not on the field all the time, but that's why his yardage total is 31.5. Still, he's been on the field for 60+% of the snaps in the last two weeks, which is good enough for me. He's gone over this number in three of the previous four weeks, so there's that too.
Tyrod Taylor should be back for the Texans, which is a big boost, in my opinion. On top of that, I think the Dolphins will score on Houston, so we should get a little game script luck here too. Only three teams in the NFL have given up more receiving yards to wide receivers than Miami, so when the passing party starts, we should be good to go. I like this one a lot.