Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions: Can Trevor Lawrence Lead the Way to Another Upset in Week 10?
The Jacksonville Jaguars scored the biggest upset of the NFL season last week, beating the Buffalo Bills at home as 14.5 point underdogs. Can they make it back-to-back wins as double-digit underdogs against the Colts this week, or will Indianapolis make it four wins in five games and keep themselves in prime position for a playoff spot in the AFC?
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Sunday, November 14
Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: CBS
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars INJURY REPORT
Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB James Robinson, LT Cam Robinson, CB Chris Claybrooks
OUT: DT Jay Tufele, G A.J. Cann, WR DJ Chark Jr., C Brandon Linder
Questionable: CB Xavier Rhodes, OT Braden Smith
OUT: WR T.Y. Hilton, S Khari Willis, DT Tyquan Lewis, S Julian Blackmon, WR Parris Campbell
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
Many things were surprising about Jacksonville’s home win over Buffalo, but perhaps none were more surprising than the fact that they held the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense to just two field goals. Bills quarterback Josh Allen entered last week throwing two or more touchdowns in six consecutive games, and one more would have tied him with Jim Kelly for the franchise record. Instead, Allen threw multiple interceptions and zero touchdowns for the first time in the last two seasons, and Jacksonville’s defensive front mauled Buffalo’s offensive line all game.
The Indianapolis Colts have three extra days’ rest to prepare for this game, having last played on Thursday night. However, with the way their offense rolled in a 45-30 victory over the Jets, Carson Wentz and the offense is likely itching to get back on the field. The formula was simple for Indianapolis: feed Jonathan Taylor the rock. Taylor ran for 172 yards and averaged 9.1 yards per carry. Nyheim Hines also chipped in with 108 total yards and a touchdown, and the game was never in doubt despite the Colts defense allowing 486 yards of offense to the Jets.
The biggest question from a handicapping perspective entering this game is should we be more excited about the Colts’ offensive outburst or worried about their defensive deficiencies? Given that we have seen Indianapolis’ offense trending upward for several weeks now, bettors should trust they will once again put up big numbers against the Jaguars.
Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in four consecutive weeks, as their offensive line has gotten healthier and more in sync as the season has gone on. Quarterback Carson Wentz entered last week with a 62.2% completion percentage, which ranked 27th in the NFL. However, he has been helped out lately by an effective running game and a special connection he has developed with Michael Pittman Jr.
Entering last week, the Wentz to Pittman Jr. connection was the fourth-highest QBR (91.7), targeting a wide receiver in the league with a minimum of 45 targets. Pittman Jr. has 19 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games. His emergence has taken the pressure of their dynamic running game and allows Taylor and Hines to face less stacked boxes.
After an 0-5 start, there is a lot to be excited about as a Jaguars fan, with wins in two of their last three games. Not taking anything away from their defensive effort against the Bills, but the Colts offense will put pressure on them in ways Buffalo could not. For starters, the Bills refused to run the football against Jacksonville, calling 47 passing plays to just 14 run plays. In addition, Jacksonville’s front controlled Buffalo’s offensive line and sacked Josh Allen four times. They will find it much tougher to live in the backfield against the Colts offensive line led by All-Pro guard Quentin Nelson.
In addition, Jacksonville has some serious injury concerns heading into this week. Early reports indicate that Trevor Lawrence and James Robinson are expected to play, but they need both to be 100% to keep pace with a rejuvenated Colts offense.
The Jaguars have owned this rivalry from an ATS perspective, as they are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Colts and are 4-1-1 ATS in their previous six road games in Indianapolis. Therefore, many will point to the division rivalry as to why this double-digit point spread is too high. However, Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are newcomers to this rivalry. In addition, the Colts have a considerable advantage with extra rest, and this being their third consecutive home game.