Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Will Matt Ryan Bring the Heat?

Cowboys vs. Falcons best bet and prediction for Week 10's Sunday afternoon matchup. NFL handicapper Josh Gayle breaks down the game and how he's betting it here.
Josh Gayle
Thu, November 11, 11:22 AM EST

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Will Matt Ryan Bring the Heat?

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DALLAS COWBOYS vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

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I would like to start off this article by speaking on what I anticipate to happen between these two teams. Dallas is coming into this contest fresh off of a loss to a less talented Denver team, and Atlanta is entering this game after beating a superior New Orleans team who were 5-2 at the time. I think that sets up a very nice game script here for us. Dallas is too good of a team to lose two weeks in a row to inferior competition. I believe that massacre by Denver is what was needed to motivate Dak and company to show the NFL that they're a legitimate contender in the NFC. Now that you understand how I expect this game script to play out, let's dive into the prop.

MATT RYAN OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS (+100)

Line Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing.

Whoever allowed this to be +100 might be the most generous human being alive. As we near the season of giving, we have been gifted a great number with great odds. Caesars isn't exclusive to giving us great value here because DraftKings also has the odds at 24.5 for -105. So why do I find this number to be of such great value?

For starters, Matt Ryan has eclipsed 25+ completions in five of eight games this season. Ryan is no stranger to being forced to pass often due to playing on teams with poor defenses. Matty Ice has 209 completions throughout eight games. Now, if you didn't read this article for a math pop quiz or don't have a calculator nearby, I can make this easy on you -- that's over 26 completions a game.

Not yet convinced? How about this. Dallas is allowing 36.38 pass attempts per game. If you factor in Matt Ryan's 69.4% completion percentage per game, that will project him at 25.25 completions. This number for Dallas is also slightly skewed because of Dak's missed game where Cooper Rush got the start. Cowboys are entering this game as massive nine-point favorites, which bodes well for Atlanta being forced into a pass-heavy offense.

People may view this bet and be skeptical because of Calvin Ridley's absence from the team. However, you would be delighted to find out that in the two games without his #1 receiver, Ryan has completed 74% and 76% of his passes. I believe we see a motivated Dallas team that puts up points, and in return, we will see a heavy dosage of Matt Ryan come Sunday.

Cowboys vs. Falcons Pick

  • Matt Ryan Over 24.5 Completions (+100)
Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets
Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.
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