Thursday Night Football Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 10 brings us a matchup of two teams heading in very different directions.
The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2, sit atop the AFC North, and have Super Bowl Aspirations. Meanwhile, the 2-7 Miami Dolphins are doing their very best to make sure the Philadelphia Eagles (whom they traded their 2022 first-round pick to) get a top-three pick in next year's draft. Very generous of them, I know.
These two squads are also heading in opposite directions in terms of health. The Ravens already got rookie wideout Rashod Bateman back a couple of weeks ago, and it looks like Sammy Watkins will return tonight as well. Meanwhile, the Dolphins might very well be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for this one.
Some might say that's Tua much to overcome. Ugh...I'll show myself out.
In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite overall plays each week of the season.
For this piece, our staff will be covering whatever bets they feel strongest about for the Dolphins vs. Ravens matchup -- no limitations. Let’s get to it!
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Picks
Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-107)
Like our Bears pick over the Steelers last week, we are following the theme of being contrarian with our wager on the Dolphins. The Ravens are the best rushing team in the league while Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run. In addition, Miami's only home win this season came last week against a terrible Texans team, and they even committed five turnovers in the game. However, this is a tough spot for the Ravens on a short week, and not knowing which Dolphins quarterback to prepare for will put a wrench into their game planning.
-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)
Total: Over 46.5 (-110)
We’ll keep it simple here on Thursday Night Football. Both these defenses give up points and struggle to keep other teams from moving the ball. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are going to have no issue going up and down the field, but we’re going to need the Dolphins and either Jacoby Brissett or Tua Tagovailoa to hold up their end of the bargain. There is no reason Miami can’t put up 17+ points tonight, no matter who is playing QB, and the Ravens are good for at least 30. I love the over on this total.
-- Brian Good (@BeGood1219)
Mark Andrews Over 4.5 Receptions (+145)
I'll open up by saying the Dolphins boast the third-worst defense in the entire NFL entering Week 10. The last time these two teams met was in September 2019 when the Ravens beat down on Miami 59-10. I don't see that large of a win tonight but the Ravens should roll over this Dolphins squad. The Ravens offense is second overall in the NFL. Marquise Brown has a tough matchup with Xavien Howard possibly shadowing him. This will funnel throws towards Mark Andrews. Andrews has topped this number in 6 of 8 games. To get these odds is pretty generous as it should be priced way closer to even money. Books are leaning toward the over 50.5 receiving yards, pricing Andrews at -130 at some spots. He's yet to have a game over 50 yards without catching 5 passes so I like that we are getting this price. Miami has allowed the eighth-most receptions to tight ends. The only issue I can see happening is the Ravens get out to a big enough lead in which they just run the ball to kill the clock but I like Andrews to hit this mark before that happens. Best of luck if you tail!
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)
Lamar Jackson Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-115)
So far this year, Lamar Jackson is averaging 276.1 passing yards per game, which is a career-high for him. In fact, there was only one game this year where he has come under 220 yards through the air and that was in the Ravens' blowout win over the Chargers. Sure, in games where teams are expected to win by a lot there’s always a fear that the quarterback won’t throw as much as expected but 233.5 is still an extremely reasonable number for Lamar. The Dolphins allow the third-most pass yards per game with an average of 280.9 yards against.
-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)
Lamar Jackson 225+ Passing Yards and Mike Gesicki 50+ Receiving Yards (+180) - DraftKings
These two lines are completely unrelated, but I'm parlaying them together regardless. The Dolphins enter tonight's contest having ceded the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Only one passer has totaled fewer than 228 passing yards against them, and that was Josh Allen way back in Week 2. Meanwhile, Lamar's posted 235 or more in all but one of his outings in 2021. On the other side, Baltimore has allowed the most receiving yards per game to the tight end position, and Mike Gesicki comes in as one of the hottest "tight ends" in the league. The big receiver is averaging 66.1 receiving yards since Week 1.
-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)
Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 Receptions (-105)
The Dolphins have given up the most quarterback pressures this season (per PFF), and it's a definitive gap between them and the team with the second-most (Carolina). The only choice they have now is a designed quick pass game that will certainly feature plenty of Waddle, who has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)