NFL Player Props Week 10: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL Player Props Week 10: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Can you believe it? Week 10 of the NFL season is the halfway mark and it's here already. We've managed a decent-sized profit in the first half. Now with so much more information available to us on teams, players, and schemes I'm expecting more consistent outcomes with our anytime touchdown picks.
Week 9 was a bump in the road. I'm not sure many people profited from the craziness that went down. There were upsets of the Jaguars over the Bills, Broncos over the Cowboys, the Cardinals without Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins over the 49ers, and the Titans over the Rams in their first game with life without Derrick Henry. Week 10 provides us with many lop-sided matchups and large spreads. There are some good opportunities for us to capitalize on anytime touchdown scorer value that I've dug up. I found this is a week where we target multiple guys with lower odds than we usually do as the scoring opportunities in these larger spreads will lean towards these top teams.
The weather will not be a factor in any game except for possibly the one in Pittsburgh. I'm ready to get back on a winning streak. So let's get to the anytime touchdown picks for Week 10.
With Week 10 of the NFL here I'm looking for a strong week of anytime touchdown picks and trying to continue to build our profit this season. Best of luck if you tail!
Week 10 Top Anytime TD Bets
Dalvin Cook (-105)
I saw Dalvin priced at nearly even money and quickly locked this in as my BANKER of Week 10. To get one of the best running backs in the entire NFL at near even money to score is criminal. In a game with one of the highest totals of Week 10, Dalvin should cash this for us in the first half. The Chargers have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns and rushing yards to opposing running backs. They are allowing 5 yards per carry. Yes, FIVE. The highest in the NFL. The Chargers have only played 8 games and rank this low. Projected to be the fifth-fasted paced game this week I'm expecting a lot of points here. Cook has only scored twice this season but I'm expecting a HUGE game from him in Week 10.
Mike Evans (+105)
Chris Godwin (+105)
Tom Brady coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for a Washington "defense" that allows the most passing yards per game. They've allowed the third-most receptions and receiving yards, as well as the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers. Brady also leads the NFL in both pass attempts per game and passing yards per game. A ridiculous 73.6 percent of the yards gained against Washington come through the air. The best quarterback vs. the worst pass defense, it's that simple. With Antonio Brown and Gronk ruled out already, Chris Godwin is questionable but likely to play right now. I'll gladly hop on his top two targets this Sunday to score at plus money. You'll see plenty of Tyler Johnson picks out there at (+220) but I like this approach better for this week given it's tied for the highest point total of the week. If we only get one it's like a push essentially. Projected to be the third-fasted paced game of the week I love the chances for scoring opportunities for these two. Godwin is tied for the second-most meanwhile Evans is tied for the fourth-most red zone targets his season. I'm confident both find the end zone though as they did in back-to-back weeks before the bye.
Mike Williams (+130)
The Vikings are allowing the fifth most air yards per attempt. The Vikings vs. Chargers game has the second-highest total set by the oddsmakers. Williams received three red-zone targets last week after inexplicably having zero in his previous four games. Like I stated with Dalvin this should be one of the faster-paced games with plenty of scoring. The Vikings secondary is banged up and Williams should eat facing Cam Dantzler. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings have allowed 221 yards to opposing wide receivers the most in the NFL. He hasn't scored since Week 5 after starting off the season with a touchdown in four of five weeks. I'm expecting to see early season Mike Williams this week that became this years fantasy football darling.
Noah Fant (+250)
Over the last four weeks, the Eagles are allowing the second-most passing yards per game. They've allowed the most receptions to tight ends in 2021. They've also allowed 8 touchdowns through 9 games to the position. Last week the Eagles allowed tight ends Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson to score. Who? That's my point. The Broncos are at full strength on offense with all of their weapons finally healthy but Fant is my favorite to find the end zone. Fant is someone we've made money on earlier this season and with his return to the lineup in Week 10 we are getting a decent price on him here.
Julio Jones (+275) * Julio OUT this Sunday *
It's not often we get one of the best wide receivers of all time priced this high to score on a Sunday. The Saints defense started off the season very well but things have taken a complete 180. Over the last month, they have allowed a league-high 9.5 yards per attempt and have been getting gauged through the air. Marshon Lattimore will be shadowing A.J. Brown. I like Julio Jones here as pivot play and a possible breakout week for him finally in 2021. The Saints are pitiful at applying pressure to the quarterback setting up plenty of time for Julio to beat his man-coverage the Saints will have in play. This is an official play if Julio sheds his "questionable" tag after limited practices both Thursday and Friday.
* Julio Jones was placed on IR late Saturday and will miss at least the next 3 games *
Zach Moss (+200)
Do you know what the doctor ordered to get the Bills right? A matchup with the New York Jets. The Jets have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and the most receiving yards to opposing running backs on the season. They have allowed 14 rushing scores the most in the NFL. Good news for Devin Singletary and Zach Moss. I prefer Moss here because not only are his odds longer, Singletary (+175) but the Bills have preferred him in scoring situations all season. Moss has taken 61-of-128 running back snaps in the red zone (48%) and 28-of-55 in goal-to-go situations (51%), compared to Singletary's 26% and 20% rates in those scenarios. Why does this matter? The Jets have allowed 9 touchdowns to running backs on 26 goal-to-go rushing attempts for the season. Let the world get back in order and let the Bills beat down on the Jets.
Marvin Jones (+250)
Picking on the Colts defense is one of the easiest things to do in 2021. I mean look what Mike White and Josh Johnson just did to them last week. They've allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers with 15 so far. Marvin Jones has 8 end zone targets this season, tied for the second-most in the NFL. All other Jaguars receivers have a combined 5. Laviska Shenault has scored three of his five career touchdowns against the Colts and he's priced at (+400). I will also be sprinkling Viska for a half unit here on Sunday.
Dan Arnold (+350)
Staying in the same game I'm going with a guy who hasn't scored yet but the target volume can't be ignored. This game has sneaky shootout potential all over it. Or at least the likelihood the Jaguars go back to being the Jaguars coming off a huge upset win at home and now go on the road to face a hot Colts team. I think they play from behind like usual and will be throwing a ton. With that comes more opportunities against a very beatable Colts secondary. Over the past four weeks, only T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce have averaged more targets at the tight end position than Arnold. Indianapolis allows a touchdown on 7.4% of passing attempts, the highest in the NFL. The Colts allowed Ryan Griffin and Geoff Swaim to score in back-to-back weeks, and are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. So let's get Arnold to jump on board here!
Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Dalvin Cook (-105) - BANKER
- Mike Evans (+105)
- Chris Godwin (+105)
- Mike Williams (+130)
- Noah Fant (+250)
- Julio Jones (+275) - * PLACED ON IR SATURDAY *
- Zach Moss (+200)
- Marvin Jones (+250)
- Dan Arnold (+350)
Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.