NFL Week 10 Picks: Top 3 Same-Game Parlay Picks
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Two-Leg Parlay (+190 on DraftKings)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, Over 299.5 Passing Yards
Cowboys, Over 3.5 Team Touchdowns
Last week’s Cowboys performance was an anomaly, at least on offense. The Broncos defense did their part to give the Cowboys offense some looks they were not used to — fewer blitzes and more man to man coverage — but it’s not like the Cowboys had never seen this before. Dallas just did not have their day on offense. Dak Prescott, in particular, was inaccurate to a degree that was jarring. That rarely ever happens and will not happen again this week.
This week’s game against a putrid Falcons defense should be a better matchup. Granted, the Broncos secondary had not been playing too well until last week either, but we knew they had the name talent and just were not living up to it. That’s not the case with the Falcons. They are just a bad defense, plain and simple.
Oddly enough, the Falcons defense has yet to allow a 300-yard passer despite how bad they are on a per-play basis, but that’s more circumstance than anything. They have only played one good quarterback this season: Tom Brady. The Buccaneers blew that game out in so many different ways that they did not need Brady to go for 300. That could be true here as well, but the Falcons offense is looking better lately and should give the Cowboys a run for their money better than they did the Bucs in Week 2, which will allow Prescott to keep airing it out.
All of the other middling quarterbacks the Falcons have faced have crushed them on a per-play basis, but not so much with insane passing volume.
Overall, I’m just in on a Cowboys bounce-back game. This offense may still be the best in the league and I think they will want to get back on track against a bad defense this week.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Two-Leg Parlay (+210 on DraftKings)
Jets RB Michael Carter, Under 44.5 Rushing Yards
Jets Team Points, Under 14.5
The story of the New York Jets offense is cool. For all the struggles they had with Zach Wilson since the beginning of the year, Mike White’s emergence as a capable starting quarterback has done wonders for the unit, in addition to some improved play out of rookies Michael Carter and Elijah Moore. That being said, they are running into a buzzsaw this week.
With as poorly as this Jets offense generates explosive plays, they will need to be perfect against the Bills in order to score. While White gets them closer to that mark than Wilson ever did, he is not quite that good. It is also worth noting White is coming off a hand injury that knocked him out of the Thursday game against the Colts, so it is possible he is not even at 100%. Buffalo has only allowed 14.8 points per game all year, including two shutouts.
As for the Carter rushing prop specifically, it is just hard to trust this Jets offensive line. They have had their moments this year, but by and large, they have been outmatched. That should especially be true this week against a Bills defensive line that can comfortably rotate in a full two-deep of starting-caliber players. Buffalo is third in rush defense DVOA this year, while the Jets are just 22nd in rush offense DVOA. It’s not a particularly favorable matchup and I trust the defensive coaching duo of Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier to keep the run game in check.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers Two-Leg Parlay (+210 on DraftKings)
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, Under 279.5 Passing Yards
This could be a high-rushing, low-passing affair for both teams. Each of their defenses is to blame for that.
Through 10 weeks, the Vikings rank third in pass defense DVOA while the Chargers rank ninth. Both secondaries are well-coached and capable of playing air-tight coverage, particularly with respect to limiting explosive plays down the field. On the other hand, the Vikings rank 26th in run defense DVOA. The Chargers sit dead-last by the same measure.
As for Ekeler specifically, he has hit this 54.5-yard mark six out of eight games this season. Ekeler also ran for 54 yards in Week 2 against Dallas. Save for the Baltimore defense completely skunking the Chargers offense as a whole a few weeks ago, Ekeler has been a pretty consistent 50-plus yards on the ground this season. Nothing about the state of Minnesota’s defensive line suggests this week should be any different.
As for Cousins, this is not so much about the quality of player he is. Cousins is an above-average quarterback who can play well enough against a defense such as the Chargers. That being said, it’s hard to imagine Mike Zimmer will see a run defense unit as putrid as the Chargers and want his play caller doing anything but spamming run plays at them. Cousins can probably hit some chunk play-action shots off of that, but the volume for him to get over 280 yards just may not be there.