3 Ways To Win Big On Monday Night Football: San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Two-Leg Parlay (+230 on DraftKings)
49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Over 249.5 Passing Yards
49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 1+ Interceptions
This is a bet on both sides of Jimmy Garoppolo rearing their heads in this game, as well as where I think the game script could take this one.
Despite the team’s record, Garoppolo and the offense have looked better lately. Garoppolo has been a hair more accurate over the past two weeks, while the re-emergence of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has given him a good option he did not have earlier in the season. That combination has netted the 49ers offense two-straight 300-plus passing yard performances.
That said, Garoppolo is still prone to mistakes. Last week’s game against Arizona was the perfect example and perhaps a good look at what may be in store for Monday night. Garoppolo took 45 dropbacks last week against Arizona, thanks to the Cardinals offense putting up 31 points, and was extremely up and down. Garoppolo’s 326 yards and two touchdowns were nice, but as one might expect, when too much gets put on Garoppolo’s shoulders, he collapsed to the tune of five sacks and an interception along the way.
That kind of high-volume, a high-volatility game script could be what we are looking at considering the Rams’ ability to score at will (in most weeks).
Two-Leg Parlay (+675 on DraftKings)
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown
49ers RB Elijah Mitchell Anytime Touchdown
I don’t know exactly how many points I expect the 49ers to put up in this game, but at least two touchdowns seem reasonable. If that ends up being the case, I imagine at least one of those scores would go to the 49ers’ lead back.
Part of that has to do with Kyle Shanahan’s inclination to run the ball when he can. The other angle is that the Rams’ run defense has been up and down this season. Los Angeles is still an average-ish-run defense unit. Make no mistake. They rank 14th in run defense DVOA and 15th in run defense DVOA inside the red zone. That is far from bad, but far enough from the elite that the 49ers should be able to punch one in at some point.
The Brandon Aiyuk angle is sort of a bet on the Rams using Jalen Ramsey to take someone else away. Deebo Samuel is the 49ers’ best wide receiver, which could be where Ramsey ends up. The 49ers also deploy a bigger-bodied Mohammed Sanu out of the slot, where Ramsey has already been playing often this season anyway. If Aiyuk can avoid Ramsey for most of his time in the red zone, he has been playing well enough the past couple of weeks that I like taking the chance on him.
Rams WR Van Jefferson First TD Scorer (+1600)
Just a few days ago, it looked as though Van Jefferson may get pushed out of the lineup thanks to the Odell Beckham Jr. signing. Things have already changed. Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice on Friday, leaving open reps for Jefferson once again.
That could be especially valuable this week. Beckham Jr. is the better player, but it should take him a week or two to settle into the new offense, whereas Jefferson has been here for a couple of years and has already played well when called upon this season. Jefferson could step up as the legit No.2 behind Cooper Kupp.
The other element to this is that the 49ers may be particularly inclined to keep Kupp down while Beckham still gets comfortable in the offense. This could lead to a couple of 1-on-1 coverage chances for Jefferson against a depleted 49ers secondary. Jefferson being the first to score is definitely a longshot, but this is as good a recipe as he will get to be the first guy on the board.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Picks
- 2-Leg Parlay (+230) - Jimmy Garoppolo Over 249.5 Passing Yards & 1+ Interceptions
- 2-Leg Parlay (+675) Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown & Elijah Mitchell Anytime Touchdown
- Van Jefferson First TD Scorer (+1600)