Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Thursday Night Football

Week 11 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Here's our staff's favorite bets.
Elisha Twerski
Thu, November 18, 2:23 PM EST

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Thursday Night Football

Week 11 kicks off with a 28-3 rematch -- I'm sure any Atlanta Falcons fan reading this doesn't need an explanation.

Things were looking pretty dire for the New England Patriots just a few short weeks ago, but they've since rattled off four straight wins and are now tied for the most wins in the AFC. Meanwhile, there seems to be no end in sight for the mediocre play of the 4-5 Atlanta Falcons.

New England is led by a rookie quarterback who's been nothing short of impressive. Mac Jones enters this contest with a very nice 69.0% completion percentage. As for Matt Ryan, though he's been stellar at times, he is fresh off a game in which he completed just nine passes and threw two picks. Yikes.

In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite overall plays each week of the season.

For this piece, our staff will be covering whatever bets they feel strongest about for the Falcons vs. Patriots matchup -- no limitations. Let’s get to it!

Click Here for Complete Falcons vs. Patriots Betting Odds

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Picks

Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+250)

Great value here on the home dog. The Patriots have been flying high this season, especially on the road, sporting an undefeated record away from Gillette. This is a spot I see the Patriots regressing in on a short week on the road versus the veteran quarterback Matt Ryan and the Falcons. I believe this is a game that will come down to the last few possessions, and not taking the big dog here at plus money is a waste! This Falcons team was playing great prior to last week's dud against Dallas, and they should bounce back to form tonight at home versus a rookie signal-caller. Give me the big dog on the moneyline here tonight!

-- Matt McCuen (@DeadPresPicks)

Damien Harris Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The ability for the Patriots to consistently win on first and third downs is remarkable to observe. A big part of that has been the consistency of Damien Harris, Harris has only missed this mark three times this season and two of those contests came versus top-10 rush defenses, Atlanta is ranked 30th against the run, and in Mac Jones' first-ever short week game as a pro, I wouldn't expect the Patriots to deviate from the reliable running game one bit.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Damien Harris has been removed from the injury report ahead of tonight's game. That means he's healthy. Yes, Rhamondre Stevenson has looked impressive, but this is Harris' backfield. Before missing last week's game, Harris had 14 or more carries in each of his last five games. He's rushed over 52.5 yards in four of those games, including two 100+ rushing yard performances. The Atlanta Falcons have allowed a running back to rush for more than 52.5 yards in five games this year, so I understand the line. The way the Patriots have been playing lately, the Falcons defense will have to respect Mac Jones and the passing attack, which will open things up for the Patriots' run game.

-- Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF)

Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+210)

I liked this play a lot, to begin with, and then when I saw the Anytime TD Scorer King himself, Tom Viera, include him in his top anytime TD scorers piece today and that just sent me over the top with confidence. Henry has seven touchdowns in his last seven games, and while the receiving yards aren't there, he's a target hog in the red zone. Atlanta has allowed four receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year, which is middle of the pack, but this matchup might be too good to pass up, especially considering you can find this prop at a +210 return. Ride the tight end tonight!

-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)

Mac Jones Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I'm expecting a slow-moving game here tonight. The Patriots play one of the slowest paces in the league. Over the last two weeks, Mac Jones attempted just 18 and 23 passes. He has only topped this number once out of the last six games. Surprisingly, the Atlanta defense has allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards so far this season. In a game I'm expecting a positive game flow for the Pats, Mac Jones won't be asked to pass too often again. Let's cash this one together. Best of luck if you tail!

-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)

Mac Jones Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-122)

The New England Patriots are rolling lately, and the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off a 40-point drubbing at Dallas, do not project to provide much resistance. On a short week, look for Bill Belichick to pound Atlanta with a physical running game, and to take the air out of the ball when they get up comfortably.

-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Elisha Twerski
@ElishaTwerski
The Senior Editor at OddsChecker, Elisha is an experienced fantasy and betting analyst. According to BettingPros, he was was one of the most accurate betting experts in 2019, ranking second in moneyline picks and 13th against the spread. Originally from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, his best skill is his ability to spell "Antetokounmpo" without looking. You can follow Elisha on Twitter at @ElishaTwerski.
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