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Betting guru Josh Gayle takes a look at his favorite bet for the Week 11 matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Prediction: It's Time to Cook(s)

We have a tale of two teams here. The Houston season was over before it started, and Tennessee comes into this week with an NFL-best 8-2 record whilst three games ahead in the AFC South. Needless to say, I have the Titans dismantling this Texans team and forcing them to pass from behind all game.

Brandin Cooks Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)

Line available at DraftKings as of writing

Now it’s to no one's surprise that Brandin Cooks is Tyrod's favorite target. Everybody knows that -- but not everyone knows to what extreme that is. Tyrod Taylor has thrown the ball 87 times this year. Among those 87 attempts, 28 of them have been to Cooks. That is good for over 32% of the time. Tyrod's pass attempts line is at 34.5. If you factor in Cooks' 32% target share, that would imply he sees over 11 Targets. All we’re asking is that he catches six of those.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Best Bet

So we know that Cooks is Tyrod's favorite target in that offense, but how about the matchup? You might want to sit down before reading this next sentence. The Tennessee Titans allow the most receptions to wideouts in the NFL. They allow 16.2 receptions a game to the receiver position alone. Given the likely trailing game script, it's fair to say that Tyrod is will be slinging the ball for the better part of the game.

We will never see the 4.5 prop that we had last week, that was a gift from the gambling heavens and is a thing of the past. In the sports betting world, you have to be quick at accepting new realities. Our new reality is Cooks at 5.5 and it’s still great value. With it being + odds, I think you’ll thank yourself for the extra payout in the long run anyway.

Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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