TNF Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Week 10 provided us with another fruitful week of anytime touchdowns! Now we have Week 11 to decipher. Tonight's matchup isn't one of my favorites. The Falcons and Patriots couldn't be coming into this game in any different fashion. The Patriots are coming off a dominant 45-7 victory over the Browns and the Falcons off a drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys 43-3. The Pats are 6-4 overall and 4-0 on the road, meanwhile the Falcons are 4-5 and 1-3 at home. I'm expecting another strong performance from New England Thursday night.
The Atlanta wideouts accounted for just 36 yards on four catches vs. the Cowboys, and now they're facing one of the NFL's highest-rated pass defenses. With Bill Bellichek on the other sideline, I'm expecting the Patriots to do what they do best, take away the opponent's best weapon on offense. In this case, that's Kyle Pitts. If Cordarrelle Patterson is able to go tonight the Falcons offense stands a better chance to score but if he's not 100 percent which it sounds like is the situation, Atlanta is in for another long night. New England isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse but they have been scoring at an insane efficient rate. I wouldn't blame anyone if they just put money on the two Patriot running backs tonight Damien Harris (+112) and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (+162). I think this is a slow-moving low scoring affair so our best chance to make money is by hitting on a couple of longer shots tonight. The Falcons boast the second-worst scoring defense in the NFL and the Patriots the second-best. With a modest total set for tonight, I'm not convinced this will be a great game for touchdown scorers.
The good news is, I've narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Thursday Night Football. Let's get to the best anytime touchdown picks for Thursday night! Best of luck if you tail!
Falcons vs. Patriots Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Hunter Henry (+230)
It would be irresponsible of me if we didn't start off with Hunter Henry here. The man has been a touchdown machine for the Patriots this season. Mac Jones continues to look his way in the red zone with a team-high 11 red-zone targets, 7 off those in the end zone so far. He scored twice last week and he has found the end zone in 6 out of the last 7 games. He leads all tight ends with 7 scores so far this season. Jonnu Smith returns to the lineup tonight which may take a few looks away from Henry but at these odds with a guy scoring at such a high rate we need to be on this one. Another weird stat is Henry has scored in three straight Thursday night games.
Jonnu Smith (+500)
The Falcons are tied with the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. So, you'd think I'd be opting for the Patriots wide receiver that is receiving the most red-zone targets so far this season. Well, I'm not. The Patriots and rookie quarterback Mac Jones spreads the ball too much to narrow down the best choice from the wide receiver group. Therefore, I'm opting with Jonnu at these crazy odds. Smith's practice reps have been capped since picking up a shoulder injury in Week 9 and eventually he sat in Week 10 despite getting on the field in every practice in a limited capacity all week. He's listed questionable but traveled with the team to Atlanta. He's only scored one touchdown this season back in Week 4 but it's obvious Mac Jones looks to his tight ends in the red zone. Despite just the one touchdown, he is second on the Patriots in red-zone targets with 9 trailing just his fellow tight end Hunter Henry.
Rhamondre Stevenson (+162)
I mentioned this earlier, I wouldn't blame anyone for just picking the two Patriots backs tonight. Well, I'm picking one and it's the guy with longer odds. Stevenson showed up and showed out last week with Damien Harris sidelined with a concussion. The Falcons are tied with the fourth-most rushing scores to opposing backs. Stevenson rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns on 20 attempts in Damien Harris's absence in Week 11, He added four receptions. His role will be reduced with the return of Harris in Week 11, but he faces a weak Falcons defense with a good game script. The reason I prefer Stevenson tonight over Harris though is not only the odds but the Falcons are in the bottom ten in the NFL at defending running backs that catch the ball. Damien Harris isn't getting many targets out of the backfield in fact it's been Brandon Bolden leading that category. Bolden is questionable tonight and if he sits I love this play even more.