Week 11 NFL Player Prop Picks: Three Best Bets of the Week

Prop bets guru John Hyslop is back with his three favorite bets of the Week 11 NFL slate.
John Hyslop
Fri, November 19, 10:31 AM EST

Week 11 NFL Player Prop Picks: Three Best Bets of the Week

Studies show that if you have at least three NFL player prop bets going every Sunday, you are 1000% more likely to be happy. With numbers like that, it's hard to imagine anyone leaving player props off their cards. It just wouldn't make sense. Who doesn't want to be happy? If you aren't sure who to bet, don't worry, I went ahead and scoured the entire sports betting landscape (all of it) and found three that could end up being the greatest NFL player prop bets of all time. Just amazing work here.

AJ Dillon Over 80.5 rushing yards (-114)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

DraftKings is where I hit this one as FanDuel had not yet come to market at the time of writing. BetMGM has the same exact number so if you want to go there, it's cool. PSA: check the OddsChecker grid before betting to make sure you get the best price. They have these props.

With no Aaron Jones, Dillon should be busy Sunday. This is a pure volume play, but if we're being honest, this could hit by halftime. I don't know if you've seen Dillon before but his legs look like a cartoon. They don't even look real. It's crazy. I've always thought, once this kid gets an opportunity he's going to show why Green Bay drafted him where they did. Well, he gets that chance this Sunday.

The Minnesota Vikings can't stop the run. At all. Only two teams in the NFL are worse in opponent yards per attempt and it's by .1 yard per rush. That's nothing. We've seen this same unit give up 78 yards on just 11 carries to the ghost of Devonta Freeman. In that same game, the recently released Le'Veon Bell ran for 48 yards. I think AJ Dillon is going for 100+ this week.

Nico Collins over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)

Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

This one is at BetMGM as well as DraftKings. Both have -115 so it doesn't matter where you play it. FanDuel still hasn't got to this game but their player prop lines are trickling out so it won't be long. I would expect them to be in line with what the others are giving though.

I like this kid a lot. The Texans are a cesspool at the moment but Collins is definitely a bright spot. He has gradually played himself into a bigger role recently and just last week he was on the field for a season-high 70% of the offensive snaps. That only translated into three catches for 25 yards but that should change this week.

Houston has the Tennessee Titans on the schedule which is a wide receiver's paradise this season. No team in the NFL has given up more receiving yards to the position than the Titans. It's not even close either. On top of that, game script should be in our favor too as Tennessee is favored by 10 points. This is a sneaky play.

DeAndre Carter over 25.5 receiving yards (-115)

Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

I stayed at BetMGM for this one as they had the best number. DraftKings wanted -115 for 27.5 receiving yards which was too rich for my blood. FanDuel has yet to come out but I will definitely take a look at their escalator lines when they do come out. Carter could be a smart 30+ guy for the right price.

Carter has seemingly come out of nowhere over the last couple of weeks, which is why we are getting this number. Over the last couple weeks, he's been on the field for at least 67% of the offensive snaps, which is what we want to see. You can't catch the ball on the bench, people. He's turned those snaps into at least six targets in each game so he's being used.

I don't normally target wide receivers against the Carolina Panthers since they can cover. Only three teams have given up fewer receiving yards to the wide receiver position this season. Still, this is a very low number and the Panthers' attention will be on Terry McLaurin so Carter should be able to easily get home here.

 
John Hyslop
@sloprules
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.
Nov 2021
Record
Wins
5
Losses
2
Push
0
ROI
50.53%
0Betslip

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