Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions Prediction: Chubb Brings the Value

Even games that are far from fascinating offer plenty of betting value. For the Browns vs. Lions matchup, betting guru Monotone Football offers his favorite play.
Stuart Durst
Sat, November 20, 6:45 PM EST

Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions Prediction: Chubb Brings the Value

Browns versus Lions...the game of the year, right?

While I would imagine this may not be the most popular game of the week, there is still always money to be made. This line has really been moving all week, it opened around 10-11 in most spots and is already up to -12.5. I'll be backing the Browns at -12.5 this week and would play that number up to -13.

The news of Jared Goff has definitely helped move this number but I'm actually not super concerned with that. I honestly have no clue whether Tim Boyle is an upgrade or not, but these Lions were already in a terrible quarterback spot and I'm not sure they could get much worse.

This is a classic example of a spot game, The Lions are coming off a huge overtime game where they were incredibly close to their first win but ended with a loss. I normally fade teams coming off overtime games but this one is even better. Not only are they coming off an overtime game, but they have their last remaining important game next week on primetime against the Bears on Thanksgiving. Love fading the Lions here.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions Prediction

Nick Chubb 60+ Yards and a Touchdown (-110)

(Line available at FanDuel at time of writing)

When betting on games like this, you have to get a bit creative. What we are essentially betting on here is Nick Chubb to have a touchdown. Not only is this one of the biggest run blocking advantages of the week, but they should be in a great running game script here. People may be concerned about the blowout aspect, but considering this team's passing ability, if they are up by a lot, Chubb should be a huge part of that.

Chubb is currently third in the NFL in rushing yards with 721, despite missing multiple games. He covered 60+ rushing yards in every game this season and is averaging over 80. Considering this team is implied to score at least three touchdowns against the Lions, I'll take my chances that Chubb is one of them. He has three touchdowns in his last three games and I expect him to continue to see a lion's share of the red zone touches, especially without Kareem Hunt.

 
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