Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks: Expect Fireworks in Vegas
The Cincinnati Bengals are traveling to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders in a matchup between two 5-4 teams in Week 11. Both teams are on 2-game losing streaks but will it be Joe Burrow and the Bengals or Derek Carr and the Raiders who snap their skids? For this Week 11 matchup, I’ll be diving into two of my favorite player props from the late slate of Sunday games. Let’s roll!
Derek Carr Over 24.5 Completions (-120)
It’s hard to pin any of the Raiders’ blame on Derek Carr this season, as he’s been mostly great for Las Vegas. He’s on pace to shatter his previous career highs in both completions and passing yards through 16 games, as the Raiders have been leaning on Carr and the passing attack in most of their games in 2021.
Carr’s 26.1 completions per game rank 3rd among all starting quarterbacks this season, behind only Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Safe to say, that’s some elite company for Carr, who is completing better than 67% of his passes for the 4th consecutive season. The Raiders QB has completed at least 25 passes in three straight games and six of his nine games this season, good for a 67% hit rate for the over on this line.
Carr and the Raiders step into a dream matchup for this prop, drawing Cincy’s pass-funnel defense. The Bengals are coming into Sunday’s contest with a top 10 run defense in both expected points (10th) and in rushing yards allowed (8th). As a result, many opponents have had to resort to pass-heavy gameplans against them in 2021, and that should be no different for Las Vegas.
Here’s where Cincy’s pass defense ranks in some key statistics this year:
- 26.1 completions allowed per game (2nd most)
- 38.8 pass attempts per game (5th most)
- 67.3% completion rate allowed (10th highest)
Cincinnati just conceded 39 completions to the Jets’ passing attack two games ago and 28 completions to Jared Goff and the Lions’ putrid passing attack two weeks before that. Look for Derek Carr to pick apart the Bengals secondary in a home game that should stay close throughout.
Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-122)
Cincinnati doesn’t just allow the 2nd most completions per game in the entire NFL. The Bengals bleed catches to opposing running backs. Here’s what they’re allowing to running backs in the receiving game this season:
- 10.0 targets per game (most in the NFL)
- 7.8 catches per game (most)
- 61.4 rec yds per game (4th most)
Cincy has allowed at least 20 receiving yards to multiple running backs in three consecutive games. This bodes quite well for Josh Jacobs, who is on pace for career highs in both receptions and receiving yards by a solid margin. He’s been more involved in the Las Vegas passing game than ever and should be called upon as a receiver yet again in Week 11.
Jacobs is averaging 23.8 receiving yards per game since Week 1, posting 17+ yards in every game since. He also has reached the over on this prop in 5 straight games, with totals of 19, 29, 39, 19, and 20 receiving yards over his last five.
The matchup with Cincinnati is a perfect one for Jacobs to continue showing his receiving prowess. I love the value of this prop at a number the Raiders RB has been smashing for the last two months.