Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks: AJ Dillon Destruction

NFL handicapper Gray Gutfreund is here breaking down his top player prop bets for the Week 11 NFC North matchup between the Vikings and Packers.
Gray Gutfreund
Sat, November 20, 4:22 PM EST

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks: AJ Dillon Destruction

The 4-5 Minnesota Vikings will be playing host to the 8-2 Green Bay Packers in a classic NFC North Showdown. The Packers have won eight straight games that Aaron Rodgers has started, and Green Bay is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these two squads.

For this Week 11 matchup, I’ll be diving into some of my favorite player props. Let’s do it!

Click Here For Vikings vs. Packers Odds

AJ Dillon Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

AJ Dillon is an absolute wrecking ball of a running back. Standing at 6 feet tall and weighing in at 247 pounds, Dillon is one of the strongest runners in the NFL. He finishes runs as well as nearly anyone, routinely powering through contact and falling forward for extra yards.

Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, a pro bowler last season, has already been ruled out for Sunday, which should open up a massive workload for Dillon. In the two games Jones missed last season, former Packer Jamaal Williams stepped in and amassed 23 touches and 22 touches in these two contests. Dillon should find himself in the same range for his workload in Week 11.

The Packers have averaged 23.2 RB carries per game this season. Meanwhile, the only other back joining Dillon on the active roster this week is undrafted rookie Patrick Taylor, who has just two career NFL rushing attempts. Simply put, this is undoubtedly Dillon’s backfield, and we can expect him to see around 20 carries against Minnesota.

The Vikings have struggled mightily against the run in 2021. Here’s where they rank in various rushing defensive statistics:

  • Allowing 130.6 yards/game (5th most)
  • Giving up 4.7 yards/attempt (3rd most)
  • 2nd worst rush defense by expected points

Minnesota’s run defense is awful. And there have been two times this season where they faced a running back that received the type of volume Dillon is expected to see this week:

  • Joe Mixon: 29 carries, 127 rushing yards
  • Nick Chubb: 21 carries, 100 rushing yards

AJD will dominate the backfield looks for the Pack, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him rack up 100+ yards on the ground in Minneapolis.

Aaron Rodgers Under 24.5 Completions (-114)

As Green Bay potentially leans on AJ Dillon, all signs point toward this line being set too high for superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers has hardly reached the 25-completion mark this season, going under this total in seven of his nine games this season. He’s completing just 21.8 passes per game this season, and it seems as though sportsbooks are overvaluing the Green Bay aerial attack.

In the Matt LaFleur era (since 2019), Rodgers has averaged 22.5 completions per game and has hit the under on this line in 28/41 games, good for a 68% success rate on this bet in a rather large sample. And, not only is this line too high given Rodgers’ numbers over the last few seasons, the matchup does the QB no favors either. With Minnesota’s leaky run defense also comes a pass defense that opponents have had less success attacking this season.

The Vikings are allowing just 21.9 completions per game, the 11th fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, just two quarterbacks have completed at least 25 passes in a game vs. Minnesota in their nine contests this season. The Vikes notably held Chargers star QB Justin Herbert to just 20 completions in their win over Los Angeles last week despite Herbert’s season average of 25.7 completions per game.

With Rodgers posting just 21.8 completions per game and Minnesota allowing just 21.9, this line is set too high and pairs perfectly with Green Bay leaning on AJ Dillon all afternoon.

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