New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks: Attacking a Low Number

Jets vs. Dolphins best bet and prediction for Week 11's Sunday afternoon matchup. NFL handicapper Josh Gayle breaks down the game and how he's betting it here.
Josh Gayle
Sat, November 20, 1:32 AM EST

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks: Attacking a Low Number

We have a battle between two not-so-stellar teams here. To make this game watchable, I found a prop that your grandchildren will be telling their friends about one day. This could cash on the first play of the game or the last. How electric does that sound? Let's get into it.

Click Here For Jets vs. Dolphins Odds

Ryan Griffin Over 10.5 receiving yards (-120)

Ryan Griffin is best known for his name sounding like Brian Griffin from Family Guy, but he's also known for his work in the NFL. Now he isn't the flashiest of players, and he's surely not on anyone's fantasy football radars, but he does provide value.

Griffin has 71 yards in the last four weeks and has 15+ yards in 3/4 of them. When all you need is a measly 11 yards, it's reassuring to see him average 17.75 over the past month. Additionally, something worth noting is how many snaps he sees per game. Of course, Griffin will have his fair share of blocking duties, but he's more than capable of being a weapon in the air. Griffin has played 41 or more snaps every week for the past five weeks. This is absolutely not a fluke, and I expect 50+ in Week 11.

Ryan Griffin has been sharing Tight End duties with Tyler Kroft this year, but Kroft went to the IR due to a lung laceration before Week 10. In that Week 10 game against Buffalo, we saw a season-high 55 snaps for Griffin. So you're telling me we need 11 yards from a guy who will see the field 55 times possibly? Count me in. If I could try my best John Hyslop impression, I would say, "this guy could accidentally catch a ball for 11 yards".

So let's address his opponent. Griffin and New York battle with Miami on Sunday. The Dolphins have been pretty abysmal at defending Tight Ends. If I just tell you they allow the 5th most yards to Tight Ends, I still feel like it doesn't convey this point enough. How about this for a stat? The Miami Dolphins have allowed SIXTEEN Tight Ends to clear this number in 10 games. Now I apologize for raising my voice but do you understand how insane that is? Every game vs. Miami has had a Tight End clear this number. Miami is allowing 64.8 yards to Tight Ends a game. All that we need is 17 percent of that.

The playing time is there, and the opponent is prone to his position, so what else? Joe Flacco will be getting the nod to start for the Jets this Sunday. To most people, this news means nothing, but to us, this is great news. Last year Joe Flacco built up a nice little rapport with Griffin. Flacco only played five games last year and only two with Ryan Griffin as the starting Tight End, but Griffin hit this prop in both games with 17 and 28 yards. Funny enough, one of those games was against Miami. I think it would be naive to completely ignore that Flacco and Griffin have shared meaningful snaps before this week.

Even mother nature herself wants us to cash this one. This game will be played at Metlife in November, which screams blistering cold. To our pleasant surprise, it's projecting to be 55 degrees come kickoff. It seems like everything is lining up for Griffin to have the most exhilarating 11+ yard game in the history of the league. Ryan Griffin does not have to reinvent the wheel for us. Just catch a ball for 11 yards and say nothing. He could do it in the first half and drive home at halftime for all I care.

If you've made it this far, I commend you on containing your excitement and not immediately rushing to the sportsbooks. Suppose there is one thing I want to reiterate before I finish my rant. Do not forget that Miami has allowed a Tight End to do this in every game. Do we really think Trevon Wesco is going to steal this glorious feat from him? I sure don't. Let's make some money on a bet not many others will be on. Who's with me?

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets
Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.
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