NFL Player Props Week 11: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL Player Props Week 11: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
The NFL is a copycat league. It's also a mismatch league. Teams will try to pinpoint an advantage and attack that opponent's weakness on Sundays. There are now ten weeks of data that we can use towards our anytime touchdown picks. With more than half the season to go, we have copious amounts of information to sift through and decipher where we want to put our money and where we can find those mismatches the NFL teams are looking for every week.
It's been a grind the last couple of weeks but something I will always do is play this game smart. We're not going to shoot blindly and throw pasta noodles at the wall here just because a player's odds are long. The research I've done will always back up the reasoning behind my anytime touchdown scorer picks.
The weather will not be much of a factor in any game except for a slight possibility in Buffalo and Chicago as we move deeper into fall. As long as the wind holds off we should see minimal effects. Let's get back on a winning streak here in Week 11.
Even better than my picks is the OddscheckerUS website compares odds from every sportsbook for every NFL game. This includes odds for anytime touchdown scorers and we find where you can get the best price for your bet.
With Week 11 of the NFL here I'm looking for a strong week of anytime touchdown picks and trying to continue to build our profit this season. Best of luck if you tail!
Week 11 Top Anytime TD Bets
Davante Adams (-105)
This is my BANKER of Week 11. Earlier this year I said if we ever see Adams at or near even money we will be on it. Well here is the next opportunity and we are locked in. The Packers will be without Aaron Jones this week in Minnesota. That historically means even more work for Adams. In this same situation in 2020, Aaron Jones missed a game against the Vikings and Adams went for 7 catches, 53 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Yes, THREE. In the other matchup with the Vikes in 2020, he lit them up for 14 catches, 156 yards, and two touchdowns. In the one other game without Jones in 2020, Adams went for 13 catches, 196 yards, and two more scores. Only Washington and New Orleans have allowed more yards to wide receivers out of teams that have had a bye. They are tied for the sixth-most scores allowed to the position. Minnesota has struggled against elite receivers allowing Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, and Ja'Marr Chase to each score a touchdown while also going over 100 receiving yards. Good luck this Sunday slowing down Rodgers and Adams!
AJ Brown (-105)
Now I get it, you want every pick at long odds well I'm sorry but the numbers don't lie. Brown is set up for a huge game here in Week 11 so at almost even money we'll take it. Brown has been pedestrian by his standards the last two weeks but now he gets to go up against a Texans team that is allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt and the third-most yards per completion. Over the past four weeks, Houston ranks bottom five in receptions and yards allowed per game to opposing wide receivers and the seventh-highest touchdown rate. The Texans don't have a cornerback capable of stopping Brown for an entire game. Their top three corners rank; 37, 78, and 122, among 126 qualified corners according to PFF.
Adam Trautman (+600)
Insert tight end facing the Eagles in 2021. Trautman has been strong in back-to-back weeks since Trevor Semien became the starting quarterback. After totaling 13 targets in seven games with Jameis Winston, Trautman has now seen 19 in three games with Siemian. He gets to go up against an Eagles defense allowing the most yards, receptions, and touchdowns to tight ends.
Dawson Knox (+260)
He scored in four out of five games before fracturing his hand in Week 6. The injury is behind him as he played the most snaps for the Bills out of anyone not named Josh Allen in his first appearance back from injury. Do you know how I just mentioned how awful the Eagles are at slowing down tight ends? The Colts aren't far behind. They've allowed the sixth-most yards, tied for the third-most scores, and the second-most catches to tight ends so far in 2021. Knox is back!
Rashod Bateman (+350)
With Marquise Brown listed questionable with a thigh bruise, there's a chance of an even larger uptick in Bateman's usage here in Week 11. Since the rookie made his debut he has made an instant impact. Bateman has at least six targets in every game he's played this season. We might get a true breakout this Sunday. Over the past four weeks, the Bears ranks bottom five in both yards and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. They have allowed the sixth-most yards to the position so far in 2021 and are tied for the fourth-most scores allowed to wide outs. Let's see the rookie score his first NFL touchdown here in Week 11! Keep an eye on Lamar Jacksons status as he was downgraded to questionable Saturday afternoon.
Cole Kmet (+375)
Friday afternoon I tweeted out I was locking in Kmet to score this week at +375 - (@Tom_Viera). Allen Robinson is listed as doubtful which should open up even more opportunities for Kmet. Kmet is quickly becoming Justin Fields' security blanket. He has at least six targets in each of his past three games. He has five or more targets and three or more catches in four straight games. The Bears are using boot play-action with Fields. Getting him to the edge creating target opportunities for Kmet to run the crossers and make himself available underneath as an outlet. Kmet has a matchup with the Ravens defense that is allowing the third-most yards and tied for the third-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends so far in 2021.
Kenyan Drake (+300)
Over the last two weeks without Henry Ruggs, Kenyan Drake has been third in target share for the Raiders trailing Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller of course. In a game that's expected to be high scoring, I'm expecting the Raiders to go pass-heavy. The Bengals have allowed the second-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing backs.
Tee Higgins (+170) & CJ Uzomah (+280)
Staying in Vegas we're going with two Bengals. Tee Higgins has been active in 7 games this season and in those 7 games has accounted for 57 targets, Chase 56, and Boyd 35. The Raiders are the second-worst red zone defense in the league and, Higgins has seen his aDOT nearly double (from 8.7 yards per game to 16.4) over his last two games. While Ja'Marr Chase gets all the hype, Higgins has at least 100 air yards and an end-zone target in three straight games. Over the last four games, wide receivers facing the Raiders are averaging the third-most air yards per target. The Raiders are allowing 1.5 touchdowns per game to receivers over that stretch, tied for the most in the NFL.
The guy who burst on the scene early in the season but hasn't done much of late Uzomah has a great matchup this week facing a Raiders defense allowing the second-most yards and tied for the third-most touchdowns to the tight end position. No defense has run more Cover-3 this season. So you ask, who cares? Considering Joe Burrow has lit up Cover-3 this season, ranking third in PFF passing grade (83.9), 12th in big-time throw rate (4.7%), and fourth in yards per attempt (9.1) against the defensive alignment.
Michael Gallup (+250)
This week, no total is higher than the Cowboys vs. Chiefs. Dak Prescott has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in six straight games. Gallup is set up for a big game now with Amari Cooper sidelined due to Covid. The Chiefs allow a league-high 31.7 yards per deep completion and 12.5% of deep passes against them have resulted in touchdowns. Last week, in his first game back from injury Gallup led the Cowboys in aDOT. It's no secret the Kansas City defense has been bad this year, this game projects to be a shootout and have the highest pace of any game this week.
Week 11 Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Davante Adams (-105) - BANKER
- AJ Brown (-105)
- Adam Trautman (+600)
- Dawson Knox (+260)
- Rashod Bateman (+350)
- Cole Kmet (+375)
- Kenyan Drake (+300)
- Tee Higgins (+170)
- CJ Uzomah (+280)
- Michael Gallup (+250)
Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.