NFL Week 11 Picks: 3 Best Same-Game Parlays
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (+235 at DraftKings)
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Over 39.5 Rushing Yards
Rushing yards are tough to come by against the Saints. Defensive lineman David Onyemata has been a stud up the middle when healthy, the edge players do a good job sealing things off, and the linebacking unit, led by Demario Davis, is about as good as any in the league right now. It’s no wonder they are the top-run defense by DVOA this season.
All of that being said, rushing quarterbacks change things. Jalen Hurts adds another number to the offense’s headcount because he can be used as a runner, which helps even things out in the box against the stout Saints defense. Furthermore, Hurts is probably going to need to scramble a few times in this game. The Saints play solid coverage and there will be plays where he needs his legs to bail him out, and he has proven plenty of times this season that he is good when it comes to that.
Eagles WR Devonta Smith, Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
For as stingy as the Saints pass defense can be, Devonta Smith is just different. It did not take long for Smith to rekindle his old connection with Jalen Hurts from when they crossed paths at Alabama.
Smith was oddly held in check against the Lions in Week 8 but has been electric the past two weeks. He earned over 100 yards against the Chargers in Week 9 before posting 66 yards and two scores against the Broncos last week. One of those two touchdowns was a contested-catch on the sideline against fellow rookie and former college teammate Patrick Surtain II, who does not often lose contested situations down the field.
Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore is a different kind of player than Surtain — faster, quicker — but Smith has the toolkit to deal with any NFL cornerback, and Hurts will be desperate to lean on his top receiver against a defense as good as the Saints’.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (+230 on DraftKings)
Texans QB Tyrod Taylor, Under 224.5 Passing Yards
Texans WR Brandin Cooks, Under 64.5 Receiving Yards
These two bets can be talked about together since they work in tandem.
Through the first six quarters of the season, Taylor was doing his best to hold together a completely incompetent Texans roster, taking down the Jaguars in spectacular fashion and going blow for blow with the Browns. Things were looking up for him after an odd few years beforehand. Unfortunately, Taylor suffered an injury in that Browns game that knocked him out for two months. His return last week was a complete disaster as he was sacked five times and picked off thrice.
Part of that can be attributed to Taylor needing to knock off some rust. We saw a similar issue with Russell Wilson against the Packers last week. However, with the Texans, it is more than that. An already bad roster has gotten worse and less functional as the year has gone on, particularly upfront. Now the Texans’ league-worst offensive line is going up against a buzzsaw in Tennessee, who can generate pressure as well as any defense in the league.
Taylor is going to be under fire all day. He is going to get sacked a few times and be scrambling for his life. Pair that with a Titans secondary that is quietly getting better despite some unproven talent at cornerback, and you end up with a potential disaster recipe for the Texans.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (+1300 at DraftKings)
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, First TD Scorer
There might not be a running back in the sport playing better ball than Jonathan Taylor right now. After an up and down first few weeks, Taylor has been electric. The Colts offensive line has found its groove and Taylor’s vision is really coming together in his second pro season, allowing him to take full advantage of his rare athletic skill set.
Taylor currently sits first in DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and sixth in success rate, as well as third in rushing touchdowns. The man is as efficient as he is explosive— a lethal combo.
On the one hand, Buffalo’s run defense has been quite good this year. That presents a scary obstacle for Taylor here. That being said, the Bills will be without starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds this week. Furthermore, their defensive line is stacked with a legit two-deep of NFL starters, which helps keep guys rested, but nobody aside from maybe Ed Oliver is a legit difference-maker. It’s entirely possible that a Colts OL that ranks eighth in adjusted line yards could have their way from the jump.
The last little note: scoring on Buffalo’s front feels more likely than scoring on their secondary. The Bills secondary is as well-coached as any in the league and has a legit No.1 cornerback to go with their awesome safety tandem. It’s tough to get it going through the air against them.
Bills RB Zach Moss, Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
On the other hand, the Colts’ stout run defense feels a bit more legitimate to me. The Colts rank second in run defense DVOA, sitting only behind the Saints. That would be a nice advantage to have versus any offense, but that is especially true against a Bills offense that can not and does not want to run the ball anyway. A completely stoppable force is meeting an immovable object. Pretty clear where the edge should go here
3 Best Same-Game Parlays
- Saints vs Eagles +235: Jalen Hurts Over 39.5 Rushing Yards & Devonta Smith Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
- Texans vs. Titans +230: Tyrod Taylor Under 224.5 Passing Yards & Brandin Cooks Under 64.5 Receiving Yards
- Bills vs. Colts +1300: Jonathan Taylor First TD Scorer & Zach Moss Under 34.5 Rushing Yards