Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Prediction: This Line Is Too Good To Be True

NFL betting expert Josh Gayle gives us his can't-miss bet for the Thanksgiving matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.
Josh Gayle
Tue, November 23, 1:15 AM EST

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Prediction: This Line Is Too Good To Be True

Would it really be Thanksgiving without watching the Lions embarrass themselves? That’s what I anticipate seeing yet again. The Bears are only 3-7 but in comparison to the winless Lions, they should win this game. We’ve found a nice spot that I anticipate could move throughout the week leading up to turkey day.

David Montgomery OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

(*Editor's note*: Line dropped from 76.5 to 75.5 and is currently available on FanDuel.)

David Montgomery is undeniably the bellcow back in Chicago. Khalil Herbert did a great job filling in while Monty was hurt but in the last two weeks we have seen Montgomery carry the ball 27 times compared to Herbert's 5.

Now, if you were to just check the game logs you would see that Montgomery has only eclipsed this number twice in six tries but it’s important to understand why and find buy low opportunities when they become available. Although he’s only hit this in two of six, it's worth noting that he’s over 58 yards in five of six, which is reassuring for his usage. Of the two that hit, one was also against this same Detroit team where he absolutely torched them for 106 yards on the ground.

So why is he only two-for-six on this prop? Montgomery has faced off against five defenses that are in the better half of the league in terms of yards allowed to runners. Tough matchups versus the Ravens, Browns, Bengals and Rams lead to some game scripts that aren’t favorable. The Bears come into this game as -3.5 favorites and I personally find that number to be soft. It shouldn’t matter who is starting between Goff and Boyle to provide a positive game script for us here.

In the two games that Chicago has won with Monty playing we have seen him receive 20+ carries in each. Detroit allows the fourth-most rush yards to running backs and have allowed 565 rushing yards to backs in the past three weeks alone.

All signs here point to Montgomery having a big game. He’s already hit this number versus Detroit, and it shouldn't be much of a problem to do so again. I’m not going to overcomplicate this much more.

Montgomery gets the bulk of the carries and Detroit allows 114 rush yards per game to backs. It shouldn’t take a mathematician to agree that Montgomery should get 77+.

I’m looking forward to stuffing deviled eggs down my gullet watching my Lions get abused in the run game for what seems like the millionth time. This line is so good that I would play it up to 80.5 for 1u. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Montgomery gash Detroit for 100+ yet again.

If somehow this props moves all the way up to mid 80’s to high 80’s, I think you could SGP the yards down and parlay it with the Bears ML to get some nice juice.

 

Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets
Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.
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