Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Is the Total Too Low?

Mike Spector takes a look at the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers matchup and makes his prediction and pick.
Mike Spector
Tue, November 23, 10:17 AM EST

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Is the Total Too Low?

The Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers both enter this Week 12 matchup on two-game winning streaks and search for their first three-game winning streaks of the season. So which team has the upper hand in what could end up being a pivotal game for playoff seeding in the NFC?

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Sunday, November 28

Game Time: 4:25 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Click Here for 49ers vs Vikings Odds

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers INJURY REPORT

MINNESOTA

 OUT: WR Bisi Johnson, G Wyatt Davis, S Josh Metellus, DT Michael Pierce, DE Danielle Hunter

SAN FRANCISCO

 QUESTIONABLE: RB Elijah Mitchell, CB Davontae Harris

OUT: DT Maurice Hurst, RB JaMychal Hasty

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction

The Minnesota Vikings are accustomed to playing close games, as each of their last seven games has been decided by seven points or fewer. Last week was the second time they completed consecutive wins over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. However, the most impressive part about their 34-31 victory over Green Bay was how much success they had offensively. The Packers had held Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson to just 34 combined points over the previous three weeks, but Kirk Cousins and the Vikings matched that in four quarters.

The San Francisco 49ers are in search of just their second home win of the year. They followed up their first home victory of the season two weeks ago against the Rams with a dominating 30-10 road victory against Jacksonville. That makes back-to-back games where the 49ers defense held their opponent to ten points, which came after allowing at least 30 points in the two of their three games prior. This is the first meeting with the Vikings since the 2019 Divisional Round, which San Francisco won 27-10 at home en route to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Kirk Cousins is not getting nearly enough publicity for the outstanding year he is having so far. Cousins has a 21:2 TD:INT ratio and last week was his seventh game of the season with at least two passing touchdowns and zero interceptions (tied with Aaron Rodgers for the most in the NFL).

The Vikings rank seventh in the league in average yards per game (387.0), in large part because they are one of the league’s most balanced offenses. While teams consistently gear up to stop Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook, Minnesota’s duo of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are a nightmare for opposing cornerbacks. The two have combined for the most receiving yards among teammates in the league. In addition, Cousins’ QBR targeting Jefferson is 94.0 (ranks 3rd) and is 89.3 targeting Thielen (ranks 7th), which both rank in the top-seven among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 targets to receivers.

San Francisco’s offense is starting to take on the identity of their NFC champion team of 2019, using a power running game and easing the burden on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers have nearly run for more yards than they have thrown for over the last two weeks, as they have 327 yards on the ground compared to 341 passing yards in that span. The Vikings are 27th in stopping the run this season, allowing 127.0 rushing yards per game. That spells trouble against a San Francisco offense that is as committed to running the football as any team in the league.

Both teams are playing so well that deciding on the point spread seems an arduous task. However, our lean is to the Vikings covering the three points given San Francisco’s lack of success at home. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and are 16-35-1 in their previous 52 games as home favorites. Meanwhile, Minnesota has covered the spread in their last four road games and are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as underdogs.

However, the safer bet is on the over, as each team should have their way offensively. The over is 6-1 in Minnesota’s last seven road games and has cashed in five of San Francisco’s last seven games as home favorites. Look for another shootout in this one.

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick

PICKS: OVER 48 (-110)

LEAN: VIKINGS +3 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Market

 
Mike Spector
MikeSpector01
Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest
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