Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction: Riding Zeke for a Thanksgiving Win
On Thanksgiving, we have an interesting battle between two teams who share playoff aspirations. Of course, Dallas is more of a lock to make it into the postseason, but Vegas is flying under the radar at .500 and of course, anything can happen. I believe we may have found a nice little two-leg same-game parlay as a sneaky find for turkey day.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 2.5 receptions and Cowboys +7.5 (-106)
Available at Caesars at time of publishing
Zeke’s normal receptions line is also at 2.5 but is heavily juiced to -150, so we paired it with Cowboys +7.5 and got it down 44 cents. I find this to be a significant improvement considering Dallas comes into this game as -7.5 favorites. Buying two touchdowns to go from a juiced bet to a normal bet is well worth it. Dallas is 8-2 ATS and we don't even need them to do that -- just don't lose by eight or more. This should be no problem against a Raiders team who are 4-6 ATS and have lost their last three games by a combined 53 points.
I don't see a reality where Dallas +7.5 doesn’t cover, so let's get to the meat and potatoes here. Why am I confident that Zeke will get three or more receptions?
First off, he has caught at least three balls in five straight and is coming off a six-catch week last week. Secondly, the DNP’s for Dallas could put Elliott in a position to be even more relied on than usual. Amari Cooper will be missing the contest due to being on the COVID list, and although CeeDee Lamb has a chance to suit up, it is no guarantee that he will do so following his concussion on Sunday.
Even if just Cooper misses the game, it should open up looks for Zeke in the passing game. When you don't have your elite receivers creating separation, the quarterback is much more likely to settle for the check down to the back.
So how about the matchup? You’d be pleased to know that the Raiders have allowed three or more receptions to a running back in nine of 10 games, and in some instances, multiple backs in the same game have reached that number. The fact that Zeke has hit this in five straight and the Raiders have allowed this in nine of 10 sre great factors that lead me to believe that this isn't far-fetched to happen yet again.
Tony Pollard will definitely get some burn out there and may even catch a ball or two, but he shouldn't get in the way enough in the receiving game to scare me away from this prop. We’ve seen Denver play this Raiders team and both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon had three-plus receptions.
Dallas is just a better team and getting the two touchdowns ahead of their official line is a nice safety net. Factor that in with a prop that has every sign pointing to hitting, and we’ve made a nice little SGP that I feel pretty confident about heading into Thursday.
Regardless of whatever news comes out about Lamb's status won't change my stance on this prop, so we can place it nice and early.
This will be a fun bet to watch win while we’re on our second plate of mashed potatoes and stuffing. The thought of making money while enjoying food and watching sports almost brings a tear to my eye. Let's knock this one out of the park and have some nice momentum rolling into Sunday.