NFL Thanksgiving Parlays: Expect The Dallas Offense to Bounce Back
Is there anything more American than overindulging on Thanksgiving and watching football? I’d have a hard time finding something better than that. As always, we have the pleasure of three games on Thursday to help get us out of helping out with the food on the holiday.
First, we’re subjected to having to take in the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions. I used to say kids these days didn’t know what it was like growing up having to watch Joey Harrington try to play quarterback but Andy Dalton vs Tim Boyle/Jared Goff isn’t much better.
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Then you have Dallas hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. After starting 3-0 the Raiders have lost five of their next seven games and now three in a row. Will they bounce back in Dallas or are the wheels falling off for them?
Lastly, to round out the night the Buffalo Bills will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Neither Buffalo nor New Orleans has been playing particularly great football lately but one of these two will have to snap out of their funk.
We’ll be looking at three parlays that you can try your luck at on Thanksgiving.
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The Moneyline Parlay: Bears ML, Cowboys ML, Bills ML +187
It’s a fan favorite so why not share with you my picks straight up for these three games. The first game isn’t going to be pretty. Nobody wants to watch Detroit and Chicago play football just like they don’t want to hear their weird Uncle’s political takes at the dinner table. I give the edge in this one to Chicago though. Tim Boyle didn’t exactly look the part throwing for just 77 yards on 23 pass attempts (3.3 yards per attempt) and if Jared Goff is able to play he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire either this year. The Bears defense has been good against the pass this year anyway so I’d anticipate a low-scoring game with Chicago coming out on top.
Over the last three weeks, the Raiders offense has gone down the tubes as they are averaging just 14.3 points over that span. They’ve also had a regression on defense as they’ve let up a combined 73 points over their last two games. That spells recipe for disaster as the Dallas Cowboys are hungry coming off a poor performance against Kansas City. Dallas has the number three scoring offense in the league and after just nine points this past Sunday, Dak Prescott and company will be looking to feast on this porous Raiders defense.
As for the nightcap, I like Buffalo. Sure, this team has been thoroughly inconsistent and are coming off a 41-15 shellacking to the Colts last week give me the number two defense in the league against a backup quarterback every day of the week.
Dallas Offense Parlay: Dak Prescott over 254.5 pass yards, Dak Prescott over 6.5 rushing yards, Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD scorer +280
Starting with Dak Prescott, he should have a good day against the Raiders defense. Over the last five weeks, Dak has gone over 255 yards three times and on the season he’s averaging 284.1 passing yards per game. Specifically, on Thanksgiving, Dak has gone for 355 and 289 yards the last two times he’s played on the holiday.
For the rushing yards, he didn’t hit this number last week but he’s gone over 6.5 yards in 73 percent of his starts in the NFL. On average, the Raiders are allowing 22.7 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Finally, Ezekiel Elliott scoring a touchdown. With eight touchdowns on the season, he’s a fairly safe bet to get into the endzone. He’s been slow lately, just two touchdowns over the last five games but he’s another one who usually shines bright on Thanksgiving. Las Vegas has allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs in 10 games this year.
Buffalo and New Orleans Parlay: Saints under 17.5 points + Bills race to 25 points +330
The Buffalo defense, outside of last week, has done a tremendous job limiting opponents. Five times already this season they’ve held opponents to under 17 points and the last time they faced a backup quarterback, Mike White, they picked him off four times and the Jets scored only 17. On the Saints three-game losing streak they’ve cleared 20 points each time but Atlanta, Tennessee, and Philadelphia aren’t exactly defensive powerhouses.
As for Buffalo, they’ve been really strange this year. Some weeks they look dominant and then other times like against Jacksonville and Indianapolis they look tremendous. This week, I think the offense is functional. I’m not sure they clear 30 as the Saints defense has been steady for most of the year but in the race to 25, they absolutely should get their first.