Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks: Kickers Matter Too

For the Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams matchup, Josh Gayle is here with a unique play in this marquee matchup.
Josh Gayle |
Fri, November 26, 4:47 PM EST | 4 min read
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Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks: Kickers Matter Too

I know it's unlike me to bet on a game that is actually watchable but I felt like spoiling you guys this week. This game between Green Bay and LA projects to be a close one and both teams are fighting for seeding in the playoffs.

Click Here For Packers vs Rams Odds

Matt Gay OVER 6.5 kicking points (-115 @ MGM)

I’ll start this off by explaining what this prop means. Every made FG kicked regardless of distance will count as 3 kicking points, every extra point will count as 1. The easiest way of hitting this could be 2 field goals and one extra point but Gay has hit this in differing ways. He has games with 3 field goals, games with 2 field goals, and multiple extra points and crazily enough he has multiple games with only one field goal but 5 extra points.

Taking all of that into account you’re probably wondering what the hit rate of this prop is. You would be happy to find out the hit rate is 9/10. And not just that, all 9 times he hit this prop he actually got 8 kicking points so we’re getting a nice little discount with 6.5. With a prop like this one of the most important factors is the weather conditions. On first glance looking at Sunday you may be scared off but dont be. Sunday morning will be windy in Green Bay in the 15-20 MPH range but kickoff isnt until 4:25 EST. By then the winds will be down to below 10 MPH.

Rams come into this game as slight favorites but Green Bay will surely be competitive. I don’t see a gamescript where Rams get blown out and elect to stop kicking field goals in 4th down situations. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been practicing but will more than liekly play. Even with my belief that he will play he won’t be 100% and that should play in the Rams favor. Green Bay could also miss Aaron Jones in this contest. The more weapons that GB has missing the more likely the Rams will hold a lead and be more likely to settle for 3 instead of feel the need to be aggressive and clawback.

Green Bay has been very good actually at limiting opposing kickers but have given up this number in 2 of their last 3 games. Both Harrison Butker and Greg Joseph have hit this vs GB this month. This will more than likely be one that we have to sweat out into the 4th quarter but i like our odds to see a late field goal or extra point to cash us. We as fans typically only mention kickers to ridicule them in their bad moments but this Sunday we will all mature as viewers and celebrate the least athletic member of the team together. I can’t promise this bet will excite you but any bet that hits 9/10 times that we can find at -115 is something worth putting a unit on.

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams Pick

  • Matt Gay OVER 6.5 kicking points (-115)
Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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