NFL Week 12 Picks: 3 Best Same-Game Parlay Picks
NFL Week 12 Picks: 3 Best Same-Game Parlay Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Same Game Parlay
2-Leg Parlay @ +225 (DraftKings)
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, Anytime TD Scorer
This one is easy to explain. Running backs score often and Jonathan Taylor is the most productive back in football right now. This is no overreaction from his five-game parade over the Buffalo Bills last week, either. Taylor scored 10 touchdowns in 10 games even before the Bills game. More specifically, Taylor scored those 10 touchdowns over the previous seven games, as he did not find the end zone at all during the Colts’ odd early-season red zone drought.
The obvious reason to be scared about this is Tampa Bay’s run defense. Defensive tackle Vita Vea returns to the lineup this week and that should help the Bucs perform like the top run defense rather than the No.6 unit DVOA currently has them at. Still, the Colts’ offensive line is plenty impressive in their own right. A runner like Taylor only needs an inch of daylight to make things happen, too, and it’s hard to imagine the Bucs will be able to keep him down entirely for four quarters.
Taylor can catch passes, too. Taylor has 32 receptions this season, two of which have gone for scores. Though not his strongest asset, finding the end zone as a receiver is absolutely on the table.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, 3+ Passing Touchdowns
Tom Brady has five games this year in which he has thrown at least three touchdowns. Funny enough, he has thrown at least four touchdowns in all of those games, but for the purposes of this leg, that’s not important.
What’s important is we know Brady and the Bucs passing offense has the capacity to score at will through the air. This week’s matchup is quite favorable for that. On a base level, the Colts rank just 20th in pass defense. They are not a dynamic pass defense unit at all, often relying on nickel corner Kenny Moore and safety Julian Blackmon to make up for the play of their outside cornerbacks.
The bigger nugget here is the Colts have allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, good for second-most in the NFL this year. They are prone to these games where quarterbacks just go ballistic on them. Seeing as the Bucs are one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, this is a ripe opportunity for the Colts to get scored on through the air once again.
Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Same Game Parlay
2-Leg Same Game Parlay @ +360
New England Patriots -6.5
New England may just be the best team in the AFC at this point. The Chiefs are starting to figure themselves out on defense and their offense will surely come around, but teams like the Bills, Titans, and Ravens all feel shakier in their current form than the Patriots do right now. The Patriots’ high floor and consistency on both sides of the ball makes them a tough out.
As for this game specifically, this is a horrible matchup for the Titans. The entire ethos of the Titans’ offense has been to run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, and play-action. That plan has folded with Derrick Henry out of the lineup, but versus some lesser teams, the Titans offense has sort of gotten away with it despite middling offensive performances.
The Patriots won’t allow that. There is not a more physical defense in the NFL right now than the Patriots. When the Titans try to establish their run game with lesser running backs, the Patriots will crash down and hammer them time and time again. Ryan Tannehill will be forced to win the game as a drop back passer and that is just not a winning formula for him versus Bill Belichick.
Patriots TE Hunter Henry, Anytime TD Scorer
The Patriots offense is plenty impressive, too. Like the defense, the Patriots offense is incredibly physical, thanks in large part to a relentless offensive line and a pair of bulky starting running backs who love to run with some violence. New England’s offense may not be explosive, but they know how to get down to the red zone.
And when they do get to the red zone, Hunter Henry is their guy. Henry leads the team with 11 targets and six receptions in the red zone this season. That proves the kind of workload he gets down there, but even more impressive is the efficiency of his opportunities. All six of Henry’s red zone catches have turned into touchdowns. Henry’s six red zone receiving touchdowns are more than every other Patriots pass-catcher combined (five).
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Same Game Parlay
2-Leg Same Game Parlay @ +210
Bengals TE CJ Uzomah, Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
CJ Uzomah is an enigma. Uzomah has as many games with fewer than five yards this season as he does games with over 90 yards — two apiece. Trying to pin down his production is as difficult as it gets.
That being said, the middle of the Steelers defense is a question mark. Linebacker struggles have been part of the team’s defensive decline over the course of the season. That has trickled it’s way up to the safeties, who are now asked to make up for more than they were before, and not playing quite as well as a result. All Uzomah needs is a few decent chances over the middle to clear this 24.5 yard mark, which he should get in this match.
Steelers RB Najee Harris, Anytime TD Scorer
Najee Harris has scored in all but one of the Steelers’ last seven games. Though the passing offense is sort of figuring itself out a bit, Harris is still the cornerstone of the offense right now given how much they rely on him as a runner. That should continue to be true again this week against a Bengals defense that has slowly fallen off a tad as a run defense unit.
After all, Harris has 32 red zone carries or targets this season. No other player on the roster has more than 14 such opportunities. Expect Harris to get his chances and eventually punch one in.
You've seen his breakdowns and football analysis on Twitter and elsewhere. Now, Derrik Klassen brings his unmatched knowledge of the game to OddsChecker to give us his NFL picks each and every week.