Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Taking Advantage of Bad Offense

With two bad offenses going at it in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons matchup how can we take advantage? Matt McCuen has us covered.
Matt McCuen |
Sat, November 27, 9:42 AM EST | 4 min read
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Taking Advantage of Bad Offense

This Sunday, we will see a battle between the 4-6 Atlanta Falcons and the 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Falcons started this season ice cold but saw themselves find a groove for a few weeks just to go ice cold again, coming off back-to-back blowout losses to the Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys.

This is a Falcons team who, despite their struggles of late, still has some hope for the postseason and are still considered in the hunt at this stage in the football season. The Jacksonville Jaguars had struggled from the start finding themselves with just two wins all season despite one of those wins being the most shocking of the season when the Jags knocked off the AFC's favorite Buffalo Bills.

The Jags went into full rebuild mode as they landed the top prospect and quarterback of the draft in the form of Trevor Lawrence; the Jags also made a change at the head coaching position when they made a significant move, landing college football coaching legend Urban Meyer. Meyer has not had a great start to his NFL career, sporting a two-win record and having off the field issues surrounding his team the first few weeks of the season. This Jags team will not be playing for much the rest of the season other than their pride on the line and trying to find answers on their future. This line is currently sitting at two points, favoring the road Atlanta Falcons, while the total in this game sits at forty-five and a half.

The play I will be looking at here will concern a total. I will be backing the under on the first half of this game this weekend. These teams each rank towards the bottom of the NFL in points per game as the Falcons come into this ranked twenty-seventh, scoring 17.8 points per game. The Jacksonville Jaguars come into this contest with the thirtieth best offense in the NFL, scoring just 15.9 points per game.

These teams combine for about eighteen points per game in the first half as both have struggled early in football games. The Falcons defense has struggled this season, but they have shown the ability to slow some teams down and limit early scoring against poor offenses. The number for this game is a tad too high for me and an overreaction by the books to the poor defense.

I believe we will see a controlled pace in this football game from the Jags. The Jags offense when right, will look to mix in the run and drain some clock, allowing Lawrence to work down the field in a controlled fashion. These teams may allow some yards on defense but when the time comes in the red zone, both of these defenes have the advantage as the Falcons and the Jags offenses again rank towards the bottom of the NFL in red-zone touchdowns per game.

The Falcons ranked 21st in the NFL, scoring 1.7 per game, and the Jags 28th averaging 1.3 per game. This is a spot I feel that twenty-three and a half is too high of a number for the way both of these offenses have performed this season. I am ready to sweat another first half under!

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Pick

  • Pick: Falcons/Jaguars 1H under 23 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Market

Matt McCuen
@DeadPresPicks

Matt McCuen is a native of Delco, PA. He has been working in the sports gambling industry and creating content for the last few years. He is an expert in numerous different sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and collegiate sports. You can follow Matt on Twitter at @DeadPresPicks.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
20216446134.52%

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