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NFL prop guru, John Hyslop, shares his three favorite plays from the Week 12 slate of games.

Week 12 NFL Player Prop Picks: Three Best Bets Of The Week

People, before you continue reading, I need to warn you. The picks below might cause you to get banned from every sports book in North America. All of them. I'm serious, you're probably going to get put on a "no fly" type list where bookmakers legit cut you off. (Basically the same thing bartenders do to hammered people.) Why? Because all three of these picks are going to win in the first half and most likely on the first drive. We're fishing with dynamite this week people. You've been warned.

Dontrell Hilliard 25+ receiving yards (+102)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.

The books have all come correct with the Dontrell Hillard receiving props which made me happy. Well, all of them except BetMGM. It's understandable though because one mistake with this guy can be costly. I'm sure they will be along with something later so don't fret.

I went with the escalator at FanDuel because that is the best way to make the books pay here. Plus money on 25+ receiving yards for a guy of Hillard's caliber is what dreams are made of. He pretty much came off the street last week and caught eight balls for 47 yards. This guy doesn't have an off button and has the perfect opponent Sunday.

The Tennessee Titans are likely to get boat-raced Sunday which plays into our hands perfectly. The Titans will be throwing all day and when they do, it will probably be to a running back since their receiving core will be watching from the sidelines. Only one team in the NFL has given up more receiving yards to the running back position than the New England Patriots this season. This guy will fly over this number.

* If you want to YOLO this one FanDuel is offering 40+ at +250. Just know that I am rooting for you if you go this route and I respect you for doing it.

David Johnson over 18.5 receiving yards (-114)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.

I'm at FanDuel again for this one because both BetMGM and DraftKings are holding out. It's sad really but I get it. Why put out a line that everyone is going to hammer? Still, you have to respect FanDuel for sticking their nose out there and saying "give it to me". True warriors.

On the streets, this is what's called a "smartest man in the room" play. I've heard you shouldn't try to be the smartest guy in the room before but that's a lie perpetuated by stupid people. Don't listen to them, they'll only make you dumber. David Johnson is going to be on the field for more than 50% of the snaps again this week. Houston cut Phillip Lindsay so Johnson's only competition is Rex Burkhead.

Johnson is the guy the Texans throw to out of the backfield though so there is that. It's a good thing though because only two teams in the entire NFL have given up more receiving yards to the running back position this season. This could easily be the greatest bet of all time and it's just hanging at FanDuel right now. That's crazy.

Ty Johnson over 25+ receiving yards (+110)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.

FanDuel was the spot again for this one but it wasn't my fault. My hands were tied. DraftKings is showing 2.5 receptions for -150 and 21.5 receiving yards for -130. I can't afford that. Not in this economy. BetMGM wants the same thing so I couldn't go there either.

Let's be real, Ty Johnson is going to go off Sunday. Michael Carter is out which means our guy Johnson is in line for work against the Texans. My guess is Tevin Coleman will handle it with him but we don't need a record-breaking performance to get home here.

Before last week's game with Joe Flacco leading the way, Johnson had crushed this number in four straight games. We have Zach Wilson at the helm again and I bet that means more action in the pass game for Johnson. I'd prefer Mike White but we have to play the hand we're dealt.

The Texans don't really give up a lot in the receiving game to the running back position but they haven't played the Jets either. Only four teams in the NFL have targeted their running backs more in the pass game than the Jets. This guy is going to fly over this number and make us all look like geniuses.

Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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