Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Prediction: Colts Looking to Avoid the Trap

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans predictions and picks for their Week 13 AFC South matchup. Can the Colts avoid the upset loss? Find out here
Mike Spector |
Tue, November 30, 2:31 PM EST | 4 min read
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Prediction: Colts Looking to Avoid the Trap

The Indianapolis Colts had a three-game winning streak snapped last week after blowing a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champions. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans’ two wins have come against the other two rivals in the AFC South division. So can the Texans make it a sweep and defeat every team in the division at least once, or will the Colts avoid the pitfall of losing to a two-win team ahead of their bye week.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans INJURY REPORT

INDIANAPOLIS

QUESTIONABLE: DT DeForest Buckner

OUT: PK Rodrigo Blankenship, S Khari Willis, WR Parris Campbell, DT Tyquan Lewis

HOUSTON

QUESTIONABLE: S Terrence Brooks, DE DeMarcus Walker, DE Jordan Jenkins, C Justin Britt, RB Scottie Phillips

OUT: WR Davion Davis

Colts vs. Texans odds

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Betting Line Movement

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Prediction

Last week, Indianapolis’ loss was their third of the season in which they squandered a double-digit lead, with the other two coming against division leaders in Baltimore and Tennessee. Much of the blame for the Colts’ latest loss fell on head coach Frank Reich, who seemingly abandoned the run in the middle part of the game.

The Colts had 27 consecutive pass attempts at one point despite having the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, in their backfield. However, Reich clarified after the game that many of those passes were run-pass options that morphed into passes based on how Tampa Bay’s defense was loaded up to stop the run. However, one could argue that Reich should not be blamed for the team’s five turnovers, especially after they had committed zero turnovers during their three-game winning streak. Carson Wentz was responsible for two interceptions, while he had just two total interceptions in the nine previous games combined. And Indianapolis’ defense ran out of gas in the second half, allowing three touchdowns and one field goal on five second-half possessions.

Houston squandered a 14-3 lead to the Jets, as they allowed 18 unanswered points and lost 21-14. The Texans offense had zero points on their final seven drives. They now own a 0-8 record against teams outside the AFC South and have been swept by the AFC East opponents in the four crossover games. In addition, Houston has lost four consecutive home games, which is their longest single-season home losing streak since 2013.

This week’s Colts-Texans game is a rematch of a game played in Week 6 that the Colts won 31-3 in Indianapolis. It is difficult to take too much away from that game since Davis Mills was Houston’s starting quarterback in place of the injured Tyrod Taylor. However, that does not take away the fact that Jonathan Taylor ran for 145 yards on just 14 carries in that game, and the Colts as a whole averaged a whopping 6.7 yards per rushing attempt. That game was part of a current nine-game streak where Taylor has had at least 95 or more scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown.

Given how easily Indianapolis moved the Houston front off the ball in their first game, one would fully expect them to be able to do so again. The Colts will likely be looking forward to getting back to the ground and pound approach that has made them so successful to this point, as they admittedly knew better than to challenge Tampa Bay’s top-ranked run defense in that regard last week. A more conservative approach will likely equate to a clean game from Carson Wentz but will not limit Indianapolis’ explosiveness, given Taylor’s ability to break off big runs. Houston has the 31st-ranked run defense in the league, allowing 135.6 yards per game, which is not a recipe for success when facing Indianapolis.

While the Texans have proven they can succeed against divisional opponents, the Colts will be looking for a momentum-building win heading into their bye week. Indianapolis has dominated this rivalry of late, covering the spread in six of their last seven meetings, and going 8-0-1 ATS in their previous nine trips to Houston. Frank Reich should not be thought of as a scapegoat for Indianapolis’ loss last week, and he will have his guys ready to play and prove why he is still one of the more underrated coaches in the league.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Pick

Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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