New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction: Don't Expect Points in Miami

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins predictions and picks for their Week 13 matchup in Miami. Need a Giants vs. Dolphina pick? Look no further
Mike Spector |
Tue, November 30, 2:02 PM EST | 4 min read
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New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction: Don't Expect Points in Miami

Only one team in the NFL has a longer active winning streak than the Miami Dolphins’ current four-game streak. The Dolphins now welcome the New York Giants for their second of three consecutive home games. The Giants are coming off a win of their own against one of their biggest rivals. Can New York build on that momentum this week, or will Miami make it five straight wins and continue their climb up the AFC standings?

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins INJURY REPORT

NEW YORK

Questionable: CB Darnay Holmes, WR Kadarious Toney, LB Trent Harris, CB Adoree’ Jackson

OUT: G Kyle Murphy, TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Sterling Shephard, TE Kaden Smith, FB Cullen Gillaspia, S Nate Ebner

MIAMI

QUESTIONABLE: WR William Fuller V, WR DeVante Parker

OUT: CB Trill Williams, TE Adam Shaheen, S Brandon Jones, S Elijah Campbell, CB Jamal Perry

Giants vs. Dolphins odds

New York Giants vs. Miai Dolphins Over/Under Movement

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction

The New York Giants are playing better football of late, winning three of their last five games following a 1-5 start. While New York has won three consecutive home games, they have lost their previous three road games by a combined 94-47. However, schedule makers were tough on New York this year as two of those losses came on Monday Night Football against last year’s two Super Bowl participants.

The Miami Dolphins have their defense to thank in large part for their four-game winning streak. The Dolphins defense has allowed 11.5 points per game over the last four games and just held Panthers quarterback Cam Newton to 5-for-21 passing and a career-low 5.8 QBR. That led to Newton’s benching, and Miami promptly outscored Carolina 12-0 in the second half. The defense has also been opportunistic with ten takeaways in the last four games, and linebacker Jaelan Phillips nearly doubled his season sack total with three last week.

The Giants forced four turnovers of their own in last week’s 13-7 win against Philadelphia. It was also New York’s first look at the Freddie Kitchens-led offense this season, as it was the Senior Offensive Assistant’s first game taking over the play-calling duties after the team fired previous offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett. While the Giants did not explode on offense, there seemed to be a more evident emphasis on getting the ball to their playmakers. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay came up with two big catches to move the chains late, and overall, Daniel Jones completed passes to eight different receivers.

Per ESPN Analytics, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ranks 8th in QBR this season despite playing behind an offensive line that ranks last in pass block win rate. Of course, it helps to have rookie wide receiver and ex-college teammate Jaylen Waddle to throw to, as Waddle had one of the best games of his young career with nine catches and a season-high 137 yards. This season, Waddle is one of seven players with at least 100 targets and is on pace to break Anquan Boldin’s rookie record of 101 catches set in 2003. Waddle’s presence is one of the biggest reasons Tagovailoa looked so comfortable in the pocket last week, completing a season-high 87.1% of his passes, which is the third time in the previous five games Tagovailoa has had at least an 80% completion percentage.

Running back Myles Gaskin has also been an excellent complement to the offense, as he has chipped in 148 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks.

It is clear that the momentum lies with the Dolphins this week, and they benefit from a second consecutive home game. The worry with laying the three points with them is that the Giants are in a tremendous buy-low spot, as they should be much more comfortable in this road spot than their last two road games on Monday nights against the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

Thus, the safer play is to back the under despite the 41.5 point total being the lowest of any game on the Week 13 slate. We are not yet sold on Kitchens’ ability to get the Giants offense rolling against a red-hot defense. In addition, Tagovailoa has just one game with more than 8.3 yards per passing attempt, so it is not like Miami’s offense is slinging the ball all over the field.

The under has cashed in nine of New York’s last ten games against teams with a losing record and is 4-1 in Miami’s last four games overall. Do not be put off by the low total, as it will be difficult for either team to score 21 points in this game.

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Pick

Mike Spector
@MikeSpector01

Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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