Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Prediction: Betting Against Brady

The Atlanta Falcons are hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 13. Here's an under on a player prop that you don't want to miss out on.
Josh Gayle |
Thu, December 2, 10:36 AM EST | 4 min read
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Prediction: Betting Against Brady

Betting against Tom Brady is the number one rule of gambling, but I don't like to follow the rules, so we're doing it anyway. I actually like this bet so much because I think he has a great Sunday. I believe he could throw for over 300 with multiple touchdowns, to be quite frank. This number is just too high. Brady has only thrown 41+ passes once in his last five games. The most relevant point I could bring up is how Brady has already played this same Atlanta team this year. In that game, he only attempted 36 passes.

Click Here for Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds

Tom Brady UNDER 40.5 pass attempts (-125)

Available at DraftKings at time of Publishing

Tampa enters Sunday as 11 point favorites. So I don't think it's out of the question that Brady could have 32-34 attempts through 3 quarters. But with the game in hand, why wouldn't they just keep the clock moving with Fournette and Ronald Jones? We've seen Arians stay aggressive despite blowouts before, but as the season gets closer and closer to playoffs, I would imagine he doesn't want to overuse his star Quarterback if it's not necessary.

Atlanta allows 34.6 passes per game and has only allowed 2 of 11 Quarterbacks to hit this prop. Both times were due to game scripts where Atlanta won the game, and the other team was passing themselves back into the game. That shouldn't be the case come Sunday. Brady is an incredible talent, but the only way I see him getting this many attempts is if Matt Ryan can torch the Tampa defense, which I just can't imagine in my wildest dreams.

Atlanta is known for giving up big plays, and if that takes place, it would most definitely play into our hands. Deep passes to Mike Evans or Godwin could create drives where there are fewer plays called, and the fewer plays, the better. A reason I think the Falcons are allowing fewer pass attempts per game is Cordarelle Patterson. Matt Ryan seems to be dumping the ball off much more than in recent years, and that keeps the clock moving and usually results in shorter plays and longer drives.

Now we don't need this to happen, but if it does indeed happen, it would be very cool. I see Tampa beating Atlanta even worse than last time, and if that's the case, then we could definitely see the backups come in, and Brady hangs out on the sideline in the late 4th. I know he's capable of 41+, but I don't see it happening this week. I don't want people to be scared off if he has 22-25 at half because I see them running the ball in the second half if they have a significant enough of a lead. The Falcons just aren't a good team. The Bucs, however, are Superbowl favorites as of the moment.

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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