New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Thursday Night Football

Week 13 gets started with the New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys. Here are our staff's favorite picks for this game.
Matt O'Leary |
Thu, December 2, 2:44 PM EST | 4 min read
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New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Thursday Night Football

Week 13 of the NFL season is here and it's getting started with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Dallas Cowboys. New Orleans is in the midst of having their season derailed with four consecutive losses as they now turn to Taysom Hill to save their season.

Dallas hasn't been so hot lately either with two losses in three of their last four including an overtime loss to the Raiders on Turkey Day just last week. 

One of these teams has to snap out of it, will it be the Dallas Cowboys who are road favorites this week or will Sean Payton's favorite swiss army knife pull out an upset win? Here's what our staff thinks for Thursday Night Football.

Click Here for Saints vs Cowboys odds

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys Picks

Cowboys TT over 26.5 (-130)

I think this is a great bounce-back spot for this cowboys team but I struggle to trust their defense right now. I do trust Dak Prescott and this high-flying offense to take care of business tonight early & often. This is one of the best offenses in all the NFL when right & I will believe they will display that tonight. The cowboys will return Copper & Lamb their top two wideouts tonight who will make an impact In this football game. Give me the Cowboys on the team total tonight.

-- Matt McCuen (@DeadPresPicks)

Tony Pollard o16.5 Rec Yds (-113)

Tony Pollard has been the perfect compliment to Ezekiel Elliott this season. The explosive playmaker continues to show out every week, and the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving game last week was no different. Pollard had 68 yards from scrimmage on 14 touches in addition to a 100-yard kickoff return TD. It’s become clearer every week that Dallas wants to get the ball in his hands more, as his workload and snap share have each been rising recently.

Pollard has become a key contributor in the receiving game, developing a terrific rapport with Dak Prescott. Pollard has totaled at least 20 receiving yards in six straight games that Dak has played, and has posted 20+ receiving yards in 8/10 games with Dak this season. He’s averaging 3.3 catches and 31.7 yards per game over those last six.

Pollard’s backfield mate Ezekiel Elliott is also entering this contest a bit banged up. Zeke is nursing a minor knee injury and has appeared slower over the last couple of games, even ceding extra work to Pollard. Zeke has only out-touched Pollard 47-40 over the last three Cowboys games, and we could see more of the same tonight. The Saints are allowing the 3rd least rushing yards to opposing RB’s, but are giving up the 11th most receiving yards to RB’s. Look for Pollard to be involved as a receiver against an elite New Orleans front on Thursday Night Football.

-- Gray Gutfreund (@PropBetGuru)

Taysom Hill anytime TD (+225)

Taysom gets the start, and call me a chalk donkey for running to the window to get the best numbers I could get throughout Wednesday afternoon, and it continues to drop like a stone since word of his starting role became official. I actually expect New Orleans to maintain a close football game this evening and Taysom will be going above and beyond his everyman role in this offense. I anticipate the full onslaught on read-option plays at the goal line being called by Sean Payton.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

The Saints, without Alvin Kamara, are bad. They have almost no talent on the offensive side of the ball and it leaves their solid defense out to dry. But, tonight we’re getting the Taysom Hill show. I, like many others, will be loading up on Taysom Hill props because he’s the only player on that New Orleans offense that is even the least bit dynamic. I expect the Saints to run an absurd amount of plays through their QB/FB hybrid and, even though I think they lose by a decent margin, that usage is going to lead to Hill finding the end zone. I’m also playing Hill to score 2+ TD at +1400 because why not?

-- Brian Good (@BeGood1219)

Tony Pollard OVER 66.5 total yards (-115)

The Dallas Cowboys are claiming that Zeke Elliott will see a healthy number of touches in this game. I'm not buying it. Why would they give a heavy workload to their star running back who is ailing with a knee injury? The New Orleans Saints will be without a few stars including Alvin Kamara and will be starting Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Cowboys will have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on the same field since Week 10. I fully expect the Cowboys to gain a significant enough lead to rest Zeke Elliott and let Tony Pollard take over in the run and receiving game tonight.

-- Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF)

Saints +6 (+100)

You can’t do worse than Trevor Siemian did at quarterback, and Taysom Hill should also invigorate a running game that needs a boost without Alvin Kamara once again. In addition, we prefer to fade the Cowboys given the COVID-19 outbreak within their organization.

-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Michael Gallup Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-114)

I desperately searched near and far and left no stone unturned looking for a market on my favorite bet for tonight. I had no luck though as no books offer a market on individual player fumbles. How do they not give the people what they want!? A Taysom Hill fumbles bet would have been my top bet of the season if it was available. Fortunately, though, I've found the next best thing tonight. Michael Gallup to catch one pass longer than 20 yards. Since 2019 he's done this in 18 of 32 games that's 56.25 percent. #MATH. In 2020, Gallup led the Cowboys' wide receivers in routes, targets, and receptions at the vertical level and 21.6 yards per catch on those throws. The Saints rank 25th overall in pressure rate and 30th in quick pressure on the quarterback. This is significant because Dak ranks second among all quarterbacks in QB rating when given time in the pocket. The Saints have allowed at least two wide receivers in 9 out of 11 games to top a 20-yard catch. If Dak is given time to throw I like Gallup to connect on a long ball tonight just as much as I like Gallup to find the end zone which you can see the rest of my anytime touchdown picks here. Best of luck if you tail!

-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)

Under 46 (-105)

I hate betting unders, it’s no fun at all to watch a game and root for teams not to score. But do you know what I do like? Money. In Taysom Hill’s four starts last year, the New Orleans Saints didn’t clear 46 points in a single one of them. In fact, they weren’t even close most of the time. Plus on a short week, I feel like we always see these games end up in low-scoring sloppy affairs.

-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)

Matt O'Leary
@MattOLearyNY

OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.

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