Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants Picks: Attacking Some Easy Lines

In his debut article with OddsChecker, Analytics Capper gives you three bets to attack in the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants.
Albert Nguyen |
Sat, December 4, 6:48 PM EST | 4 min read
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants Picks: Attacking Some Easy Lines

*Editor's note*: OddsChecker is excited to welcome Albert Nguyen to our growing team of content creators! Albert has made a habit of providing highly accurate picks and excellent analysis across a multitude of sports. Be sure to follow him on Twitter at @AnalyticsCapper and sign on to OddsChecker so you don't miss a single pick!

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants Preview

On the surface, this Sunday matchup between the New York Giants and the Miami Dolphins looks like a dull and lackluster bout between two losing teams. Although the Giants and Dolphins are 4-7 and 5-7, respectively, both teams have been playing much better as of late, especially Miami.

Miami is on a four-game winning streak and have heavily leaned on their defense. This was the defense that had Dolphins fans around the world excited for the 2021 season. It's been dominant as of late -- in each of the last five games, Miami's opponents have scored 11, 9, 10, 17, and 10 points, which equates to an eye-popping average of only 11.4 points per game.

New York, on the other hand, even with a 4-7 overall record is surprisingly 4-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in their last five games. They are slowly getting healthier each week, particularly their star running back Saquon Barkley, who looks more agile and stronger as he recovers from a couple of serious injuries. The Giants hope to continue to play better and rack up wins as the season approaches its end. If they finish with a losing record in the 2021 campaign, it will be a disastrous five straight losing seasons for the franchise, which hasn't happened since the 1970s.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants Best Bets

Under 39.5 points (-108)

This number is very low for a reason. Oddsmakers see two above-average defenses and two below-average offenses. The under has hit in five straight games for the New York Giants and four out of five for the Miami Dolphins. I expect Miami to continue to leverage their great defense, keep it simple by running the ball, and only ask Tua to manage the game without risking too many mistakes. This type of game script would favor the Dolphins and the under since New York's offense is close to incompetent, currently ranked as the seventh-worst scoring offense in the league with an average of fewer than 18.4 points per game. The organization has already fired their offensive coordinator in hopes of a positive shake-up, and they're looking to make more major changes in the offseason.

Giants vs. Dolphins Market Total

Myles Gaskin Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)

Line available at DraftKings as of writing

Gaskin has quietly been a workhorse for the Dolphins this year. Since Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons, he has averaged 17 carries a game. In 2021 NFL, that is the closest you'll get to an every-down back (if you're not named Derrick Henry). That type of usage will continue in this game as he looks to build off his two-touchdown performance last week against the Panthers. Miami's other backfield mate, Phillip Lindsay, is a solid running back but is currently dealing with an ankle injury this week and looks to be limited on Sunday.

Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 Receptions (-135)

When Tua Tagovailoa drops back to pass, his number one option has been rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. He is coming off a massive 9 reception, 137-yard, 1 touchdown game last week, and he's currently fifth in the league in total receptions. His sure hands and his game-breaking ability gives Tua the confidence to go his way time after time. I look for Waddle's target share to stay in the double digits and this will give him ample opportunity to hit this prop bet.

Albert Nguyen
@AnalyticsCapper

Albert Nguyen is a native of Dallas, TX. He went to college in California and is currently a lawyer and consultant in the healthcare industry. Being an economics major, he's always been fascinated with numbers and statistics. He started creating his own projection models to handicap sports in the mid 2000s. He recently began working in the sports gambling industry and creating content as a side gig. He is an expert in numerous different sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Soccer, Tennis, Golf, and collegiate sports. You can follow Albert on Twitter at @AnalyticsCapper.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
December 202152034.25%

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