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For this AFC East matchup, Matt O'Leary shares his favorite same-game parlay for Bills vs Patriots.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills MNF Same-Game Parlay: Trusting the Patriots

In what should be one of the best games of the year, the Buffalo Bills will be hosting the New England Patriots up in Orchard Park, New York. After starting the year 2-4, the Pats have rattled off six in a row and have been downright dominating teams over this stretch outsourcing opponents 211 to 63 over that span.

Buffalo, who was a preseason favorite for the Super Bowl has looked nothing like the team they were in 2020. The Bills are 7-4 and have been inconsistent all year long. Sure, they beat up on the Saints on Thanksgiving but that doesn’t prove that they’re back to their old ways.

For Monday Night Football, I have a three-leg parlay to work with that has a potential +330 return. Let’s get into it.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

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Leg 1: Patriots over 2.5 team touchdowns

For eight weeks in a row, the New England Patriots have put up over 2.5 touchdowns per game. On the season, they’re averaging 28 points per game so that gives them a little bit of breathing room to work with as well to hit this 2.5 mark. The Buffalo defense has been excellent this year, holding opponents to fewer than 20 points six times on the season. With how New England is rolling, I don’t know if they’ll be able to do it on the big stage this week though.

Leg 2: Bills under 24.5 points

The Bills have the second-highest scoring offense in football but the weird thing is they either don’t score or score in boatloads. They have three games under 20 points this year. Since the bye week though they have 26, 6, 45, 15, and 31 points. My guess is that you’ll be getting one of those lower scoring weeks as one it’s against a good defense and number two it seems to be an every other week thing for Buffalo since the end of October. In this six-game win streak, the Pats have allowed just one opponent to go over 20 points and none have gone over 24.5.

Leg 3: Patriots ML

Forget the spread, I’m taking the Patriots to win outright. They’re the better team right by far and the track record for Bill Belichick against Buffalo is incredible. He’s 35-7 against the Bills including a 15 game win streak from 2003 through 2010/. Sure, Buffalo beat the Pats twice last year but this version of the Patriots is just better. Prior to last season, the Bills have never won two games in a season against Belichick.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Pick

3-leg same-game parlay +330 (Bet $100 to win $330)

  • Patriots over 2.5 team touchdowns
  • Bills under 24.5 points
  • Patriots ML

Sportsbooks that offer same-game parlays

Article Author


OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.

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