Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks: Going Heavy on Hollywood Brown

NFL handicapper Gray Gutfreund is here breaking down his top player prop bets for the Week 13 AFC North matchup between the steelers vs. Ravens
Gray Gutfreund |
Sat, December 4, 11:16 PM EST | 4 min read
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks: Going Heavy on Hollywood Brown

The AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens are taking on the .500 Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field in a Week 13 matchup that features one of the most intense rivalries in football. Both squads have been playing an ugly brand of football in recent weeks, but I believe the Ravens have a much better chance to prevail offensively in this one.

For this heated AFC North contest, I’ll be explaining why I like my two favorite player props from what should be the most entertaining game from the late slate. Let’s do it!

Click here For Steelers vs. Ravens Odds

Marquise Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

Line Available at BetMGM at Time of Publishing

This line is just straight-up disrespectful to Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. He’s emerged as a true star at the wide receiver position and is clearly Lamar Jackson’s favorite target in Baltimore’s offense.

Brown’s six receptions per game and 9.2 targets per game have him securely in the top twelve in the NFL in each category. Hollywood is averaging a humongous 12.3 targets per game over his last four outings, which leads the entire league during this stretch. Brown’s gigantic usage and elite target share are quite encouraging for the over on this prop, with Lamar looking his way early and often.

Brown has 5+ receptions in seven of his ten games this season, and he has 4+ receptions in nine of ten games in 2021. Brown has been nearly an every-down player for Baltimore this season, too. He’s logged at least 75% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps in six consecutive games, and his role is here to stay. He has at least 5 receptions and at least 10 targets in four straight and will look to make it five against a Pittsburgh defense that can be beaten by wideouts.

Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed the 13th most receptions per game to wide receivers and has allowed 18 total players to record 5+ catches in their 11 games this season. Pittsburgh has allowed Tee Higgins, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen to reach the 5-catch plateau in just their last two games. I’m expecting one of the NFL’s most explosive up-and-coming receivers to continue putting up big numbers against a Steelers defense that has been vulnerable through the air recently.

Devonta Freeman Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Line Available at  FanDuel at Time of Publishing

Devonta Freeman is enjoying a bit of a career revival in Baltimore this season, taking over lead back duties in the Ravens backfield over the last month. Freeman has performed well enough that the team even felt comfortable releasing Le’Veon Bell a couple of weeks ago, leaving the backfield to Freeman and Latavius Murray.

But, don’t be worried. Murray doesn’t pose a large threat to Devonta Freeman’s volume. Freeman has out-touched Murray 39-20 over the last two weeks and has been a significantly more effective runner all season long. Murray’s measly 3.4 yards per carry pales in comparison to Freeman’s 4.3 YPC. The Baltimore coaching staff has recognized this and rewarded the former Atlanta Falcon with more touches over the last month.

Freeman is averaging 13.8 carries and 53.8 rushing yards per game over his last four games, despite some difficult matchups recently, namely the Dolphins and Browns. However, the Steelers are the complete opposite of a difficult matchup for opposing runners at the moment. Here’s where Pittsburgh ranks in some key rushing defensive statistics this season:

  • 29th in Expected Points contributed by rush defense
  • 28th in Rushing Yards allowed
  • 32nd in Yards/Attempt allowed

 In summary, the Steelers have been awful against the run this season. Every running back that’s seen at least 11 carries has reached the 50-yard mark against Pittsburgh over the last two months. Lucky for us, Freeman has 16 carries in back-to-back weeks and should see a similar workload with the Ravens entering Sunday’s matchup as 4.5-point favorites.

In the only two friendly matchups he’s faced in his last six games, Devonta Freeman posted rushing lines of 9 Att, 53 Yds and 13 Att, 79 Yds against the Chargers and Vikings, respectively. Look for the veteran RB to see 12-14 carries and clear his rushing total in the second half against the division-rival Steelers this week.

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Gray Gutfreund
@PropBetGuru

Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
December 2021330-3.82%

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