Monday Night Football Best Bets Week 13: Our Staff's Locks for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season caps off with a divisional bout between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. Here are our staff's favorite bets for MNF.
Elisha Twerski |
Mon, December 6, 3:31 PM EST | 4 min read
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Monday Night Football Best Bets Week 13: Our Staff's Locks for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Thirteen games have already taken place in Week 13, and just one remains -- the Monday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.

Favorites have had the upper hand this week, going 8-5 against the spread. Meanwhile, the under has had the same success, hitting in eight of 13.

Tonight's matchup features the two teams that sit atop the AFC East -- the 8-4 New England Patriots and the 7-4 Buffalo Bills.

In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite overall plays each week of the season.

For this piece, our staff will be covering whatever bets they feel strongest about for the Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots matchup -- no limitations. Let’s get to it!

Click here for complete Bills vs. Patriots betting odds

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Picks

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-115)

I would pass on laying this number at -3.0, as there is supposed to be bad weather in Buffalo for the game, and that seemingly favors New England’s ground-and-pound style better. However, this is still a big spot for a rookie and we expect the Bills to do just enough running (especially with Josh Allen) to protect their home field. Buffalo has won nine straight over AFC East opponents and will make it 10 tonight.

-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-140)

Pretty simple call here for me as I believe this is a crazy line we are getting on the Bills today! This is a great letdown spot for the Patriots, who have been the hottest team in the NFL and are due for some regression. The atmosphere tonight in Buffalo will be electric and this will be the toughest road test for Mac Jones so far. I believe Josh Allen and the offense will be too much for the Pats to handle and the Bills roll in this game. Let’s cash another one in tonight for Monday Night football!

-- Matt McCuen (@DeadPresPicks)

I searched near and far for my favorite player prop, I even looked at defensive player tackles for this one but I kept coming back to the Bills straight up. The price is a bit juicy but this is a Bills spot all the way. The line is short, at less than a field goal but this is a must-win if Buffalo cares at all about winning the AFC East. The Patriots are the public’s darling right now. You’ll see a lot of “hottest team in the league” going around. In reality, four of their six wins during this streak have come against less than stellar teams in bad spots. The Titans, Falcons, Panthers, and Jets. The other two wins over the Chargers and Browns were slightly impressive but this Bills team is a legit contender out of the AFC. I’m not so sure the Pats are quite equivalent yet with a rookie quarterback. Buffalo heads to Tampa next week then get the lowly Panthers and up to Foxborough for a rematch with the Patriots. This is a must-win and a great spot for the Bills. Best of luck if you tail!

-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)

New England Patriots +3.0 (-110)

This game is bigger than just your typical Monday Night Football game. The Patriots have been on absolute fire recently and are coming off a big win against the Titans at home. Meanwhile, the Bills have lost two of their last four against the Colts and Jaguars. The offense has had really great moments and some ugly ones. Against the Patriots, the ugly is going to come out. New England looks fantastic on the defensive end and continues to force a whole lot of turnovers. Give me New England with the points.

-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)

Total: Under 40.5 (+100)

I know, I know, betting the under is never fun, but this time it feels like an obvious play. This Monday Night matchup features the Buffalo Bills' number one defense and the New England Patriots' number two overall defense. New England is playing out of their mind right now on defense. They've held opponents to under 20 points in four straight games and five of their last six. I hope you like old-school football because that's what we're getting tonight.

-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)

Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This game means everything for Buffalo. For once, Buffalo felt like the better, far more established team coming into the season, and while it's been equally incredible and frustrating for football fans league-wide to see how quickly the Patriots have put it back together in the post-Brady era, I can promise you in Buffalo this has been a soul-rattling development. I've said a lot of words here while not even making a case for selection but Allen hasn't been running a ton this year, and tonight, I expect him to take off. We might get this one longer carry or it might be a night of attrition to cross this number, but he will get it there.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Gabriel Davis Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Gabriel has already hit this number in eight of 11 games this season and even has a catch longer than 14 yards in seven of 11 games this year. Let’s not overthink this -- the Patriots do have a good pass defense, but shutting down ace wideout Stefon Diggs will be their number one priority tonight. Additionally, Davis jumps up to second in the team in targets per route run against man defense. Patriots run the fifth-most man defense in the NFL.

-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)

Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-145)

Many receiving props for this Monday Night face-off in Buffalo are lower than expected due to some potentially poor weather. However, I’m expecting Jakobi Meyers to withstand the wind and cold temperatures at Highmark Stadium this evening. Meyers has been on the field for 87% of New England’s offensive plays this season, which puts his snap share in the top 15 among all wideouts this season.

On top of being nearly an every-down player, Meyers has been targeted 7.5 times per game by quarterback Mac Jones. There isn’t another player in this offense that sees more than 4.5 targets per game, cementing Meyers as the clear top target for Jones. Jakobi has 4+ receptions in 11 of 12 games this season, good for an outstanding 91.7% hit rate on this over. He’s picking up right where he left off in 2020, as he had 4+ receptions in eight of 10 games to close the season, averaging 5.4 catches per game.

The Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs in this one, which could help Meyers’ case for the over on his receptions. In the Patriots’ four losses this season, he's had at least 5 receptions in each of them, averaging 7 receptions and 10.3 targets per game in losses. He’s also caught 4+ balls in every game New England won by only one score. In other words, he should see plenty of looks from Mac Jones as long as New England doesn’t stomp all over the Bills in a Primetime road game. Jakobi Meyers has been a security blanket for Mac Jones all season long. Look for the third-year wide receiver to remain consistent in Buffalo tonight.

-- Gray Gutfreund (@PropBetGuru)

Elisha Twerski
@ElishaTwerski

The Senior Editor at OddsChecker, Elisha is an experienced fantasy and betting analyst. According to BettingPros, he was was one of the most accurate betting experts in 2019, ranking second in moneyline picks and 13th against the spread. Originally from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, his best skill is his ability to spell "Antetokounmpo" without looking. You can follow Elisha on Twitter at @ElishaTwerski.

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