Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Trust Joe Mixon to Score

For the Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers matchup, Josh Gayle is all over Joe Mixon.
Josh Gayle |
Sat, December 11, 11:43 AM EST | 4 min read
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Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Trust Joe Mixon to Score

We’re in for a game that should have heavy playoff implications. The 6-6 Niners take on the 7-5 Bengals for what should be a close one. I decided to get a little weird with this one and bet on something completely different than we’re used to.

Click Here for 49ers vs Bengals Odds

Joe Mixon anytime TD scorer (-112 @ Caesars)

Usually, when betting touchdown props i find them to be tough to predict. The amount of times we see unthinkable vultures or frustrating throws to third-string tight ends is enough to make me scream. I have good reason to have faith that he finds the endzone this Sunday. Mixon is an absolute workhorse and rarely gets taken off the field. If Cincinnati finds themselves in the RedZone, it’s safe to say Mixon will be out there and will be a contender to run one in or catch one out of the backfield.

So yeah, the cool thing with this prop is that it isn’t excluded to just rushing touchdowns. Mixon “only” has a rushing TD in eight of his last nine. When you include receiving touchdowns that would make it 9 in a row. We are getting -112 odds for something that has happened every week since week 3. I figured this prop would open at least at -160 but the sportsbooks gave us a gift.

So Mixon has not only seen the endzone in nine straight weeks but he has multiple multi-touchdown games. In the last four weeks, we have seen Mixon in the endzone seven times. This man is averaging 1.75 touchdowns a game in the last month. Why wouldn’t we think he can’t find pay dirt at least once? Even with all of this information, I was still hesitant to pull the trigger. I wanted to check every possible box, so I looked at the matchup to see how generous it was.

San Francisco has been horrid vs RB’s this year. In terms of pure rushing touchdowns, they allow the 4th most in the NFL. In terms of receiving touchdowns they rank in the middle but it’s still a major plus matchup for Mixon. Mixon has 12 rushing touchdowns on the year and only 2 receiving. Where the Niners struggle to limit running backs the most is Mixon's biggest strength. San Francisco has allowed a running back to score a touchdown in 9/12 games. 10/12 if you include Jalen Hurts who he is more effective as a runner than a passer. In total, the Niners have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns to running backs in 12 weeks of play. That’s good for 1.08 rushing touchdowns allowed a game.

Joe Mixon has been an absolute workhorse and has seen the endzone in 9 straight games. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. That alone should lean you in the right direction. The total for this game is set at 49. This implies that Bengals score a touchdown about three times. If that’s the case, I think it's a good bet to predict Mixon could be one of those 3. Bengals really are playing for something here and after years of bad football, the fans are craving to watch a winning product. I think this is the year that the Bengals finally make the playoffs. Mixon will help lead the charge yet again this Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers Pick

  • Joe Mixon Anytime TD (-112)
Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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